Cocoa Prices Surge Amid Harvest Concerns
On Thursday, the September ICE NY Cocoa (CCU26) closed at +274, up 5.51%, while July ICE London Cocoa #7 (CAN26) finished at +173, increasing by 4.63%.
Cocoa prices continued a two-week upswing, reaching a 5-1/2-month peak. This rise is largely attributed to worries surrounding the upcoming cocoa harvest in West Africa. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded vital routes, hindering farmers’ access to their fields and ports, thereby threatening global supply. By June 10, cumulative rainfall had already approached the typical monthly average for both countries. Additionally, such excess moisture heightens the risk of brown rot on cocoa trees, which could diminish yields.
Looking ahead, medium-term weather concerns support cocoa prices. The Japan Meteorological Agency announced on June 10 that an El Niño event is currently underway across the equatorial Pacific. Generally, El Niño brings warm and dry conditions to West Africa, leading to lower soil moisture and stressing cocoa trees, thus affecting production. The NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a Super El Niño emerging this year, expected to be notably strong.
Early assessments of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop indicate below-average formation of cherer on cocoa trees, reflecting poor prospects for the main harvest that kicks off in October.
That said, cocoa bean prices have faced pressure due to indications of an ample supply. On June 11, Ivory Coast upgraded its estimate for cocoa arrivals at ports this season by over 260,000 tonnes. Data shows that farmers shipped 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports this marketing year, which is an 18.9% year-over-year increase. However, Ivory Coast forecasts a 1.65 MMT production for 2025/26, marking a drop of 10.8% from last year’s 1.85 MMT.
Bearish price trends are also visible with rising cocoa inventories. On Thursday, ICE’s cocoa stockpile reached 2,948,286 bags, the highest figure seen in 18 months.
Weak global demand for cocoa further dampens prices. The National Confectionery Association reported a 3.8% year-over-year decline in North American cocoa milling volume for Q1, totaling 106,087 tons. Similarly, the European Cocoa Association noted a 7.8% drop in European cocoa crushing volumes during the same period, hitting the lowest level for a first quarter in 17 years. Conversely, the Asia Cocoa Association reported an unexpected rise of 5.2% in Asia’s cocoa crushing volumes to 223,503 tonnes, surpassing expectations for a decrease.
Support for prices is also coming from reduced cocoa supplies in Nigeria, the fifth largest cocoa producer. Bloomberg reported a 20% year-over-year decline in Nigeria’s cocoa exports for April, totaling 14,921 tons. Predictions indicate that Nigeria’s cocoa production for 2025/26 may fall to 305,000 tonnes, which is an 11% drop from the 344,000 tonnes expected for 2024/25.
In February, Ghana announced a near 30% reduction in the official price it pays cocoa farmers for the upcoming growing season. In March, Ivory Coast said it would slash cocoa farmers’ salaries by 57% coinciding with the mid-harvest season that began in March. Together, Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over half of the world’s cocoa.
Expectations of a shrinking global cocoa surplus are lending support to prices. On April 29, StoneX revised its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in 2026/27 down to 149,000 tonnes from an earlier projection of 267,000 tonnes, citing risks to West African cocoa crops from the anticipated El Niño. Similarly, they lowered the forecast for 2025/26’s global cocoa surplus to 247,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 287,000 tonnes.
