Coffee Prices Drop Amid High Production Forecasts

On Tuesday, coffee prices took a significant hit, with Arabica Coffee for March closing down by 15.45 points (5.15%), and ICE Robusta Coffee for March declining by 171 points (4.44%).

Arabica coffee fell to its lowest point in 7.25 months, while Robusta hit a six-month low. This decline has been linked to expectations of a large Brazilian coffee harvest, which has been weighing on prices for the past three weeks. On February 5, Brazil’s official forecasting body, Conab, indicated that coffee production in Brazil for the upcoming year would rise by 17.2% compared to last year, hitting a new record of 66.2 million bags. Arabica production is anticipated to surge by 23.2% to reach 44.1 million bags, whereas Robusta is expected to grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Additionally, favorable rainfall in Brazil has boosted harvest prospects. According to Somar Meteorologia, the Minas Gerais region, which is key for Arabica coffee, received an impressive 72.6 mm of rain in the week leading to February 6, which is 113% of the historical norm.

Robusta prices have also faced downward pressure due to soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the leading producer of Robusta beans. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a remarkable 38.3% year-on-year increase in Vietnamese exports, reaching 198,000 tons by February 6. Vietnam’s overall coffee export volume for the previous year stood at 1.58 million metric tons, reflecting a 17.5% rise.

This growing supply from Vietnam is likely to keep Robusta prices in check. For the 2025/26 season, Vietnamese coffee production is projected to rise by 6% year-on-year to about 1.76 million metric tons, marking the highest level in four years.

In terms of stock levels, the recovery in ICE coffee inventories has also put downward pressure on prices. Arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags last November but rebounded to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags by January 7. Conversely, Robusta inventories fell to 4,012 lots in December, the lowest in 13 months, but have since risen to 4,662 lots, the highest in two months as of January 26.

On a positive note for coffee producers, Brazil’s Ministry of Trade reported a substantial decrease—42.4%—in coffee exports in January, totaling 141,000 tons, compared to the previous year.

Furthermore, low coffee production from Colombia, which ranks second in Arabica production globally, continues to support prices. The National Coffee Producers Federation noted a 34% decline in Colombian coffee output in January, amounting to 893,000 bags.

Signs of tighter global coffee supplies are also contributing to price support. The International Coffee Organization reported a slight 0.3% dip in global coffee exports for the current market year, totaling 138,658,000 bags.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), global coffee production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 2% compared to the previous year, reaching 178,848,000 bags. Although Arabica production is forecasted to fall by 4.7% to 95,515,000 bags, Robusta output is set to increase by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. The FAS also predicts that Brazil’s coffee production will decrease by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output could reach 30.8 million bags, the highest in four years, marking a 6.2% increase. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.