Coffee Prices Decline Amid Harvest Predictions
Today’s market shows a drop in coffee prices, with May Arabica Coffee (KCK26) down 4.45 (-1.52%) and May ICE Robusta Coffee (RMK26) falling by 30 (-0.86%). Arabica has hit a seven-week low, driven by expectations of a record coffee harvest in Brazil, which is putting downward pressure on prices. However, the situation is slightly different for Robusta coffee, with inventory levels at ICE declining to a 16-month low of 3,788 lots as supply tightens.
Marex Group Plc recently forecasted a remarkable 75.9 million bags of Brazilian coffee production for the 2026/27 season, which, notably, surpasses Scafina’s estimate of 75.4 million bags, representing a significant 15.5% increase compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, StoneX has raised its prediction for Brazil’s coffee production for the same period to 75.3 million bags, up from a previous estimation of 70.7 million bags. They also anticipate that the global coffee surplus will balloon to 10 million bags in 2026, a considerable increase from 1.8 million bags in 2025—the largest surplus seen in six years.
Robusta prices are under pressure as Vietnam, the leading producer of this variety, sees a surge in coffee exports. According to Vietnam’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s coffee exports from January to March 2026 jumped 14% from the previous year, totaling 585,000 tons. This follows a strong performance in 2025, where exports reached 1.58 million metric tons, up 17.5%. Additionally, coffee production in Vietnam is expected to rise by 6% in 2025/26, reaching 1.76 million metric tons (about 29.4 million bags), marking the highest output in four years.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is influencing coffee prices positively, as it has led to increased global shipping costs, insurance rates, and fuel prices. This situation is tightening supply levels for coffee importers and roasters alike.
Brazil’s small-scale export trends are also somewhat supportive of prices. Last Tuesday, Cecafe indicated that Brazil’s green coffee exports in March fell by 10% year-on-year to 2.65 million bags. Furthermore, on April 7, Brazil’s Ministry of Trade reported a 31% decrease in March coffee exports, totaling 151,000 tons.
However, the weather may be a concern for Brazil. Somar Meteorologia recently reported that Minas Gerais—Brazil’s primary Arabica growing region—received just 4.2 mm of rain last week, which is only 20% of the historical average. This could potentially harm yields and lend some bullish sentiment to coffee prices.
On a less optimistic note, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) noted on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) have dipped by 0.3% from the previous year, totaling 138,658,000 bags.
According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) semi-annual report issued on December 18, global coffee production is expected to increase by 2.0% to reach a new high of 178,848,000 bags in 2025/26. However, Arabica production may decrease by 4.7% to 95,515,000 bags, while Robusta production is projected to rise by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. The FAS estimates Brazil’s coffee production will drop by 3.1% to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is forecasted to increase by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags—its highest in four years. Ending stocks in 2025/26 are predicted to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in the previous year.
