Coffee Prices Surge Amid Harvest Concerns
On Tuesday, Arabica Coffee (KCH26) closed up by 6.75 (+1.79%), while January ICE Robusta Coffee (RMF26) saw an increase of 106 (+2.38%).
The rise in coffee prices on Tuesday can be attributed to worries regarding harvesting due to adverse weather conditions. In Brazil, there’s heightened focus on the Arabica crop due to dryness issues. A report from Somar Meteorologia indicated that Minas Gerais, which is Brazil’s primary Arabica-growing area, received only 26.4 mm of rain in the week leading up to November 21—just 49% of what’s typically expected.
Additionally, Robusta coffee prices climbed as forecasts predict heavy rains in Vietnam’s Dak Lak province, the nation’s largest coffee-producing area, which might further delay harvesting.
Decreasing stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also putting upward pressure on prices. U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports have significantly cut down the supply. The Arabica stock monitored by ICE dipped to 398,645 bags last Thursday, marking the lowest level in a year and a half, while Robusta stocks plummeted to 5,134 lots, a four-and-a-half-month low. Considering that about a third of unroasted coffee in the U.S. is sourced from Brazil, these tariffs have led U.S. buyers to cancel new contracts for Brazilian imports, tightening available supplies. Between August and October, after President Trump implemented tariffs, U.S. purchases of Brazilian coffee dropped by 52% compared to the same timeframe the previous year.
On a rather troubling note, Arabica coffee prices fell to a seven-week low last Friday, following President Trump’s executive order that exempted Brazilian food products, including coffee, from tariffs.
Looking to the future, StoneX predicted last Wednesday that Brazil is expected to produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, which includes 47.2 million bags of Arabica beans—representing a 29% increase year-over-year.
Bearish sentiments are arising due to an increase in Vietnamese coffee supply. Data from Vietnam’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that coffee exports surged by 13.4% year-over-year from January to October 2025, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is anticipated to rise by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, or 29.4 million bags, reaching the highest levels in four years. Furthermore, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association suggested that favorable weather could lead to a 10% increase in production for the upcoming year, reinforcing Vietnam’s status as the leading Robusta coffee producer worldwide.
Signs of tightening global coffee supplies are also influencing prices. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell by 0.3% compared to the previous year, totaling 138.7 million bags.
Brazil’s harvest forecasting agency, Conab, has also impacted prices by revising down its prediction for Brazil’s 2025 Arabica coffee yield to 35.2 million bags, a decrease of 4.9% from earlier estimates. The total coffee production forecast for Brazil in 2025 was adjusted to 55.2 million bags, down 0.9% from the previous figure.
On another note, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasted in late June that global coffee production for the 2025/26 season will reach an unprecedented 178.68 million bags, a rise of 2.5% year-on-year. They expect Arabica production to decline by 1.7% to 97.022 million bags, while Robusta would see a 7.9% increase to 81.658 million bags. The FAS anticipates that Brazil’s production will grow by 0.5% in 2025/26, reaching 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is projected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags, the highest seen in four years. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to climb to 22,819,000 bags, up 4.9% from 21,752,000 bags in 2024/25.
