College enrollment has been on the rise recently, but the silver lining may not last long due to a variety of factors, from changes in the job market to confusion over this year’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).
The National Student Clearinghouse released data this month showing an increase in enrollment this spring, but the numbers are still below pre-pandemic levels as colleges face a turbulent future due to changing job requirements and demographic challenges.
The number of undergraduate students peaked at about 18.1 million in 2010. By 2021, when the pandemic was at its peak, it had fallen to 15.4 million.
“Whether it’s a coincidence or not, there are a lot of factors that suggest the downward trend could continue,” said Stephen Henn, an adjunct professor of economics at Sacred Heart University.
Undergraduate enrollment rose 2.5 percent this spring, the second consecutive year of increases after years of declines, the research center reported.
The most pressing issue that could affect those benefits in the fall is this year’s FAFSA form. FAFSA season typically starts in October, but applications weren’t available until January. From there, many delays have arisen from issues. website The amount of aid sent to students was inaccurate.
“Our concern right now is the FAFSA,” said Katherine Brown, senior director of policy and advocacy at the National Network for College Access (NCAN), adding that difficulties for applicants could lead to “problems with fall enrollment.”
NCAN found that as of May 17, 41.5% of high school students entering the 2024 school year had completed a FAFSA form, down 15.5% from last year.
Brown said these “significant” declines were “even more severe in high schools that serve more students of color and low-income communities.”
But a bigger long-term issue for universities looking to grow their student enrollments is the changing job market and how students and employers view the need for a degree.
Data released in February by job-listing site Indeed found that 52% of job listings have no formal education requirement, and over the past four years, the number of job listings without a degree requirement has increased by 4%.
“We’re seeing education requirements slowly disappear from job ads,” said Corey Staal, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.
“In recent years, […] “We’re seeing a growing support for skills-based hiring, and we’re noticing that employers are becoming more explicit and more proactive in listing skills in job ads, rather than just writing, ‘Let’s have a degree requirement,'” Staal said.
Even as college costs continue to rise, advocates argue, fewer students feel they need to take on large amounts of debt to attend college because of the wide range of job opportunities available that don’t require a degree.
The decline in educational requirements is not limited to the private sector.
Several states, including Maryland, have announced they will eliminate degree requirements for thousands of government jobs.
“Through these efforts we are launching today, we will ensure that qualified non-degree candidates are regularly considered for these career-changing opportunities,” Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said at the time.
Other enrolment challenges facing schools are even more outside of their control.
“If you look at demographics, birth rates in the U.S., birth rates in general, like most developed countries, are falling, so there will be fewer and fewer students of college age. I think the overall demographics will continue to decline unless they are replaced by other college students, such as immigrants,” said Sacred Heart University’s Heng.
Where students learn is also changing: Community colleges account for half of the increase in enrollment, even though they have less than half the student body of higher education institutions, according to a report from the National Student Clearinghouse.
“I think there are a lot of encouraging data points in and of themselves, but if you dig a little deeper you also see that vocational training programs are a big driver of growth at the community college level,” said Michael Hansen, CEO of Cengage Group, one of the world’s largest education technology companies.
“I think students are saying, ‘I want to teach you a skill set that I can bring to an employer so that I have a high chance of getting a job, making a decent living, and earning more than I did before.’ That’s a good return on investment,” Hansen says. “So the answer is coming out at each institution. Some are becoming more proactive and more aggressive, some are a little bit behind, but overall we see the system working, and I think that’s encouraging.”
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