The Transformation of the AFC South
Can you believe how far the AFC South has come? Just a while ago, it felt like a bit of a desolate area in the NFL landscape.
Remember when people were debating whether Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson would be a more unlikely choice to start for the Colts? It’s interesting because now the Colts, who started the season at 100/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, have scored 38 points in consecutive games and have improved to 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. They’ve also shifted their odds to 11/1 on FanDuel.
Initially projected to win 7.5 games, their win total has now shot up to 12.5, the highest of all teams as they approach Week 9.
Indianapolis has turned what used to be a lackluster division into an exciting spectacle with thrilling performances every week—it’s quite surprising, really.
It’s almost funny—last year, the Giants watched Saquon Barkley have one of the best rushing seasons ever and go on to grab a Super Bowl. Now, Daniel Jones has guided the Colts to achieve the third-most points in the team’s history, scoring 270 through eight games. Only Johnny Unitas has done better in 1964 and 1958.
Jones is on track for a career season, likely exceeding 4,300 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. He’s completed an impressive 71% of his passes, with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) projected at 5.1%.
But it’s not just about Jones. Jonathan Taylor has emerged as a crucial game-changer for the team, making a significant impact out of the backfield.
For those who picked Taylor in fantasy, he leads the NFL with an average of 106.5 rushing yards per game and has tallied 14 total touchdowns in eight games. With career-high averages in yards per carry (5.9) and receptions (3.1), he’s also the frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year at -225 on DraftKings.
Looking Ahead
Taylor has 18/1 odds for NFL MVP, which places him among the top contenders. This marks the first time since Adrian Peterson in 2012 that a running back has had a shot at MVP. Peterson had an amazing year, averaging 131.1 yards per game and scoring 13 total touchdowns.
Shane Steichen, now in his third year as head coach of the Colts, has revamped a previously predictable offense. His strategies emphasizing tempo, spacing, and misdirection have improved conversion rates significantly, allowing the team to score on 60.8% of their drives.
Interestingly, Steichen is also a strong contender for Coach of the Year.
One area of concern, though, is how the secondary will handle the increased pressure of playoff situations. The Colts are currently allowing an average of 271.6 passing yards per game. While they’ve defended the run effectively and limited easy scores, the offense will need to maintain this rapid pace if they can’t minimize big plays through the air.
