The nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) on Thursday changed Michigan’s Senate race to a “50-50” vote, citing issues surrounding President Biden that continue to impact Democratic races in other states.
“If there’s one race that looked favorable for Republicans before the CNN debate and is now likely to become even more competitive, it’s Michigan,” says Jessica Taylor, CPR’s senate and governors editor. As stated in the analysis.
According to CPR, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Mich.), the likely Democratic candidate in the Aug. 6 primary, is holding a lead, though it’s still narrower than other races CPR has labeled “Democrat-leaning.”
Taylor said Slotkin is a strong Democratic candidate after Democrats won a House seat in 2018, but this is her first time campaigning statewide.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) has the endorsement of former President Trump, but CPR reported that he “has never run for office in the Trump era of the Republican Party” since retiring in 2014.
“The Wolverine State’s increasingly competitive presidential race and the possibility of lower Democratic turnout could have a unique impact on the Senate race,” CPR reported.
CPR, citing the RealClearPolitics average, said Michigan was the only state in which Democrat Slotkin was lagging behind Biden, likely because she is not widely known among Michiganders.
“While Democrats say Slotkin still has an edge over Biden in the polls, there’s no denying that the race is very close,” Taylor wrote in his analysis. “As such, we are changing the Michigan Senate vacancy from Democratic-leaning to close.”
Slotkin announced her candidacy for the Senate in early 2023 after the retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) opened up a Michigan seat.
CPR noted that there was little data following Biden’s debate to “either send total panic through the party or calm anxiety completely.”
Still, the bipartisan group said that even if all vulnerable Senate Democrats were re-elected, “it would not be enough to maintain their majority.”
The new Michigan results follow another CPR analysis this week showing Trump gaining ground in key battleground states.
Biden’s refusal to step down has worsened his chances of winning the November election. The group changed the 2nd Congressional Districts of Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska from “Democrat Predominant” to “Democrat Predominant.”
The group also moved Nevada, Arizona and Georgia from close to “Republican-leaning.”
