Cook Political Report shifts North Carolina governor’s race to ‘toss up’

Nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) on Tuesday changed the closely watched North Carolina gubernatorial race from “Democrat-leaning” to “close,” citing the Republican candidate’s impressive fundraising metrics.

The race is pitting Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson against Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein to succeed Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited.

Of the state’s 7.4 million registered voters, only 34% are Democrats. 2022 Data According to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the state has historically preferred Democrats for executive branch positions.

In the past century, only three Republicans have been elected governor.

CPR’s initial assessment of the election was that “Despite former President Donald Trump’s victory in the state, a Democratic lead was expected given the party’s recent track record of victories,” and that Robinson has a history of making controversial statements that have been widely characterized as anti-Semitic, anti-women and anti-LGBTQ.

But Robinson’s strong fundraising skills tipped the balance back to the center.

“Robinson has indeed raised money — more than $10.5 million so far — and according to both Democrats and Republicans, he is on track to raise the most money ever for a Republican gubernatorial candidate,” the analysis said.

Polls also continue to show the race is effectively tied: A new poll released Tuesday by CPR showed Stein and Robinson tied at 37 percent support each, with 17 percent of respondents undecided.

According to The Hill/Decision Desk polling average for the election, the two candidates are virtually tied, with Stein receiving 40.5 percent of the vote and Robinson receiving 40.2 percent.

Robinson, a close adviser to President Trump, has come under intense scrutiny in recent months for a series of controversial comments on topics ranging from LGBTQ issues to civil rights, slavery and women’s issues.

“Ultimately, it will depend on whether Robinson’s divisive rhetoric alienates swing voters in the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro area, particularly suburban women, and whether Stein can outpace Biden enough to overcome the Democratic Party’s weakness with younger voters and voters of color,” the analysis said.

“This report reinforces what we’ve known all along: this race will be close, which is why Josh is working so hard to make sure every vote counts,” Stein’s campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement to The Hill.

“This race will represent a clear choice for North Carolinians between a safer and stronger North Carolina under Josh Stein, or the path of hatred and division under Mark Robinson,” he said.

A spokesman for Robinson’s campaign said the report proves Robinson resonates with all North Carolina voters.

“Despite the relentless lies and smears from Democrats, Mark Robinson’s vision and message continue to resonate with voters of all backgrounds and walks of life in North Carolina,” a spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill. “Far-left politicians like Joe Biden and Josh Stein have brought us open borders, serious inflation, and rising crime in many of our major cities. Voters have had enough, and are waiting for a bold conservative outsider like Mark Robinson to join forces with President Trump to reverse the failed and radical policies of Biden, Stein and the Democrats.”

Robinson would like to become the state’s first black lieutenant governor and its first black governor, while Stein would like to become the state’s first Jewish governor.

Updated at 9:31pm ET.