Copper prices reached $13,000 per tonne in London for the first time on Monday, continuing last year’s significant rally triggered by mining shutdowns and trade issues.
The benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed by 4.3% to almost $13,020 per tonne before settling around the $12,500 mark.
Last year ended on a strong note for copper, as it set multiple records on the LME, achieving its best annual performance since 2009 with an increase of over 43%. This made it the top-performing industrial metal on the exchange.
Mine Interruption
In 2025, production interruptions at key mines like Indonesia’s Grasberg and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo raised worries about the global supply of copper, a vital component in technologies such as data centers and electric vehicle batteries.
These concerns are still relevant this year, intensified by a recent strike at Chile’s Manto Verde mine, which has led to increased speculative activity in the market, according to Al Munro, a senior base metals strategist at Marex.
“This situation reflects a speculative, money-driven approach, with many waiting to make purchases on any price rises, particularly as expectations for further increases linger in the first quarter of 2026,” Munro mentioned.
Ewa Mansey, a commodity strategist at ING Group, pointed out, “A combination of years of underinvestment and ongoing mining disruptions has created a tight market, and uncertainties around tariff policy and stockpiling are further tightening the availability of metals.”
Tariff Threat
Recently, the renewed possibility of U.S. copper tariffs has led traders to boost shipments to the mainland U.S. while cutting back supplies elsewhere. President Donald Trump’s investigation into these tariffs had already sent the market into a flurry in 2025, driving prices in New York to unprecedented highs.
“Our projections suggest that while the global refined copper market will have a surplus in 2025, U.S. tariffs have distorted metal and inventory distribution, significantly increasing U.S. imports,” UBS Group analysts, including Daniel Major, reported on Monday.
The U.S. holds about half of the world’s copper inventories but represents less than 10% of global demand, creating risks for reduced supply elsewhere. UBS noted that London’s cash-to-three-month spread remains in a backwardation pattern, indicating short-term tightness.
“Overall, the combination of supply shortages and regional disruptions linked to U.S. tariffs is driving demand for copper,” analysts led by Wang Jiechao from China Securities stated, adding, “The global copper market is projected to have a shortfall of over 100,000 tonnes in 2026.”
