Copper prices are poised for their largest annual rise in over ten years, driven by factors such as U.S. tariffs, supply challenges, and fears of global shortages.
In December, prices for the red metal exceeded $12,000 per tonne, marking a surge of over a third in 2025. This increase is the largest since 2009, a time when copper prices jumped more than 140 percent as the global economy began recovering from the financial downturn.
Looking ahead, analysts predict that the demand for industrial metals will surpass mined supply by the 2030s, leading to sustained high prices next year. The demand for copper is climbing due to the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy—including wind and solar—alongside the electrification of vehicles and a construction boom in data centers to support artificial intelligence. However, many aging copper mines are becoming less productive, and starting new mines is not only costly but can take years to yield results.
Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals demand analyst at a commodity brokerage, noted that various factors are converging this year, including improved relations between the U.S. and China, negotiations for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and the effects of import tariffs imposed by the U.S.
Since October, London’s copper prices have surged to unprecedented levels, especially after significant accidents at some of the largest mines raised alarm over potential shortages. In recent weeks, major mining companies have downgraded their production forecasts.
This year also saw a significant influx of copper into the U.S., with importers rushing to bring in the metal ahead of tariffs set by the Trump administration.
There are ongoing discussions about possible tariffs which have led to a widening gap between the London benchmark and U.S. Comex copper prices. Traders are looking to capitalize on this by purchasing copper at the London Metal Exchange and selling it on the Comex.
Analysts were surprised when a recent tax exemption allowed copper cathodes entering the U.S. to bypass tariffs. Still, the Comex price remains higher than London’s, indicating ongoing concerns over potential new tariffs next year.
Albert McKenzie, a copper analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, remarked that the market is experiencing a “blaze of bullish sentiment” fueled by supply concerns linked to copper flowing into the U.S. While volumes in Comex warehouses have hit a historic high of over 400,000 tonnes, LME inventories have significantly decreased, particularly in Europe where stocks have dropped to below 20,000 tonnes.
McKenzie highlighted that the current strain is more regional and tied to U.S. stocks rather than a global issue. As of late November, 85 percent of the copper in LME warehouses originated from China, which cannot be delivered to Comex facilities.
Despite this, one metals trader mentioned that large shipments continue to flow into the U.S. due to high domestic prices. The strategy to sustain this involves substituting China-origin copper with Comex-eligible material sourced from other regions, like the Middle East. This momentum is likely to carry into 2026, with potential shortages also anticipated outside of the U.S.
Alice Fox, a commodity strategist at Macquarie Group, predicts that copper prices will likely remain robust through 2026, despite a slowdown in demand growth from China, the top consumer of copper.
