Copper Prices Forecasted for Significant Increase
On August 12, 2025, a copper anode was taken out of the furnace at the Glencore Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec.
Currently, copper is set for its most substantial annual price increase in over ten years. This surge is attributed to several factors, including supply disruptions, a weaker US dollar, optimism regarding China’s economic recovery, and extensive investments in artificial intelligence.
Experts suggest that the price uptick could persist into next year, particularly given ongoing supply concerns and the fast expansion of global data centers.
As of Tuesday, three-month copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.5%, landing at $12,405 per tonne. This follows a record high of $12,960 reached in the previous session.
This benchmark contract has seen an increase of approximately 41% this year, marking the fastest growth since 2009, when prices soared over 140% following the global financial crisis.
In New York, copper prices have surged by more than 40% since the beginning of 2025, positioning themselves for the largest annual increase since 2009, when the rise was recorded at 137.3%. Demand for copper often serves as a barometer of economic health, especially as base metals play a crucial role in the transition to renewable energy and are essential for producing electric vehicles, upgrading power grids, and building wind turbines.
In fact, projects related to electrification, expanding power grids, and constructing data centers require significant amounts of copper for wiring, power transmission, and cooling systems.
Commodity strategist Ian Roper from Astris Advisory Japan K.K. discussed the increasing demand for copper, driven partly by global AI advancements. He indicated that a tight market could propel prices higher next year. “The buzz around copper lately has primarily revolved around green energy,” Roper noted. Despite a downturn in China’s real estate market affecting other metals like steel, copper’s demand remains resilient. “Renewable energy and electric vehicle production have fueled its growth, and now, data centers are emerging as a major focus,” he added.
Prospects for AI and Defense Influencing Copper
According to analysts at JP Morgan, research released in late November suggests LME copper prices may continue to climb next year. Their forecast indicates average prices could reach $12,500 per tonne in the second quarter.
The bank anticipates average copper prices to settle around $12,075 through 2026, driven by increased demand from data centers. Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan, commented on the unique conditions affecting copper inventories and ongoing supply disruptions that could result in a price rally, possibly pushing prices beyond $12,000 in the first half of 2026.
However, not all analysts share the same optimistic view. Goldman Sachs Research believes that while copper prices may retreat from recent peaks, a rising demand will eventually drive prices upward in the long run.
In a statement from December 11, Goldman Sachs projected that LME copper prices would hover between $10,000 and $11,000, emphasizing that they are unlikely to dip below $10,000 due to robust global demand for infrastructure investments in areas like AI and defense. Their forecast estimates an average price of $10,710 for the first half of 2026, and looking ahead to 2035, they predict that copper prices could reach $15,000, surpassing the general consensus among industry analysts.
