Recent polling indicates a competitive Republican primary for Senator John Cornyn’s seat in Texas, with Attorney General Ken Paxton and Cornyn neck-and-neck. Representative Wesley Hunt trails by about 10 points.
A poll released by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University placed Paxton at 34% and Cornyn at 33%, while Hunt garnered 22%. Interestingly, 11% of participants were uncertain about their preferences, and this survey took place before Hunt officially declared his candidacy.
Both Cornyn and Paxton are well-recognized figures, with 90% and 94% of Republican voters indicating familiarity with them, respectively. In contrast, Hunt still has some ground to cover; roughly 69% of surveyed individuals acknowledged knowing enough about him to form an opinion.
Hunt’s entry into the race adds a layer of complexity for Cornyn, who is already in a tough contest with Paxton. Polls suggest a probable runoff election could occur, indicating the necessity for candidates to secure a majority of votes to avoid such a scenario.
Participants were also asked about a hypothetical matchup between the Republican candidates and four Democratic contenders: former Representatives Colin Allred and Beto O’Rourke, along with Representatives Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico.
According to the poll, Hunt fared best against the Democratic candidates, maintaining an average lead of 4.5 points, while Cornyn and Paxton led by averages of 3.5 and 2.25 points, respectively. This information came to light quite early in the primary season, leaving Hunt’s future a bit uncertain at this stage.
The survey also reflected split opinions on Trump’s influence in the Republican primary. About 50% of respondents would be more inclined to support a Trump-endorsed candidate, while 40% said it didn’t matter, and 10% indicated they’d be less likely to back that candidate.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to October 1, involving 1,650 adult respondents from YouGov. The overall sample size carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 points, while the Republican primary sample includes 576 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.08 percentage points.
