Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) has recently narrowed the gap in polls against Attorney General Ken Paxton in what is shaping up to be a highly competitive primary. Despite this, many observers still regard Cornyn’s reelection efforts as quite challenging.
An August poll from Texas Southern University indicates that Paxton has gained a five-point advantage over Cornyn, shifting from a nine-point deficit noted in a similar poll in May. Conversely, an Emerson College poll from last month showed Cornyn slightly ahead by one point.
Other recent surveys highlight a tight race, with Paxton reportedly holding a double-digit lead in some instances. His campaign is reportedly aggressive, focusing on educating Texas voters about Cornyn’s record.
“Ken Paxton’s tumultuous summer aligns with a campaign keen on informing Texans about Senator Cornyn’s actual voting history, contributing to an undeniable voting momentum in our favor,” remarked one observer.
An Echelon Insights survey from August showed Cornyn slipping by five points. However, an internal poll from the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn, noted that he managed to cut Paxton’s lead in half—now just eight points.
Supporters of Cornyn argue these polls indicate he’s only four points behind Paxton in a two-person race. Brendan Steinhauser, a former campaign manager for Cornyn, mentioned, “I suspect part of the strategy was to regain strength in September as summer concluded, which was likely the plan from the outset.”
In recent weeks, polls indicate that Cornyn’s supporters have ramped up their ad spending significantly across Texas. Meanwhile, Paxton faces scrutiny related to personal matters, including claims about his residences in divorce filings.
The tighter race follows Cornyn’s proactive stance on Texas issues, contrasting with Paxton’s previous absence during crucial constituency moments, which included criticism for being in Europe as local matters unfolded.
Allies of Cornyn appear to have taken notice of how effective their messaging has been, leading to increased ad spending in the assumption that it would elevate Cornyn’s standing.
Geoffrey Skelley from Decision Desk HQ suggests that the contrasting narratives are likely to influence the race mildly. “Cornyn and his allies are working hard to sway public opinion against Paxton. Negative personal news about Paxton combined with the financial advantage of Cornyn’s supporters helps clarify the landscape,” he noted.
However, some Republicans are less optimistic, with one strategist suggesting that claims of Cornyn gaining momentum might be overstated. “While Paxton has certainly lost ground, he still appeals strongly among his base. His divorce and how it has been portrayed seem to be the main points affecting perceptions,” the strategist explained.
Interestingly, Paxton’s campaign has yet to roll out any major media efforts. The same strategist posited that once they do, the dynamics might revert back to a significant lead for Paxton.
“Paxton doesn’t necessarily need to pour a lot of money into advertising. His existing coverage has already reminded voters of Cornyn’s weaknesses,” they added, expressing some frustration over the expenditure on reshaping the race.
According to polling averages from DDHQ, Paxton is currently leading Cornyn by 12 points, indicating an improvement since the year’s start.
Another factor to consider is the potential candidacy of Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has hinted at entering the primary race. Hunt has been actively engaging in statewide promotional efforts, spending around $1.2 million on advertisements this year.
It remains uncertain whether Hunt would siphon votes from Cornyn or Paxton. However, a leaked memo from the National Republican Senate Committee has urged donors to discourage Hunt from pursuing a run, especially in light of Cornyn’s vulnerabilities.
Steinhauser admitted that while closing the gap would be tough for Cornyn, he acknowledged that voter engagement would be critical. “Primary elections are trickier to gauge than general ones due to the typically lower turnout in non-presidential years,” he pointed out.
