(NEXSTAR) — The sun has been active in recent days, producing solar radiation events, powerful flares, and now multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that could bring auroras to parts of the United States this week. there is.
Although these terms may sound overwhelming, these are normal activities for the Sun, especially at its current stage of Solar Cycle 25.
A solar cycle is an 11-year cycle in which the sun reverses its magnetic poles, causing space weather such as flares and CMEs. Flares and CMEs are explosions of plasma and magnetic material from the Sun that can reach Earth in just 15 to 18 hours, NOAA says. explain. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) announced last month that we Nearing the peak of the current solar cycle.
As part of that, you can expect to see the activity that SWPC has been monitoring for the past few days. Last week, SWPC detected multiple flares in the Sun. This can affect anything that uses high frequencies. wireless signal However, it does not have a major impact on the general public.
At Friday’s SWPC, report It was a small solar radiation storm event, and the government agency said it was “not unusual” and had only a minor impact on people using high-frequency radios, and that it “posed a small risk to space launches.” “This may occur,” he warned.Later that day, the agency report A Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) phenomenon was underway, but this too could only affect those using radio frequency communications in the polar regions.
On Sunday, SWPC issued the following statement: magnetic storm clock The phenomenon will continue until Wednesday as “multiple CMEs may arrive on Earth, leading to an increase in geomagnetic activity.”
according to NASA, CMEs create electrical currents in the Earth’s magnetic field that can send particles to the north and south poles. When these particles interact with oxygen and nitrogen, auroras can occur.
“This is essentially like the sun shooting a magnet into space,” Bill Marter, SWPC’s program coordinator and an experienced space weather forecaster, previously told Nexstar. “That magnet affects the Earth’s magnetic field, and we get a big interaction.”
This interaction is known as a magnetic storm. The strength of the storm will affect how far south the aurora can be seen.
To indicate the strength of geomagnetic storms, SWPC 5 step scale. At the bottom is G1, which is described as a small storm with the possibility of seeing the aurora borealis in the Upper Peninsula of Maine and Michigan.G5 storm described as extreme could send aurora borealis to southern US
SWPC says the CME is likely to produce a G1 to G2 level geomagnetic storm by Wednesday. These are not uncommon. Last month, the G2 moderate geomagnetic storm impacted the Earth. Eruption of solar material detected.
While there is no concern for the general public regarding these storms, there is a chance for those in the northern United States to see the Northern Lights.
Based on SWPC’s current forecast, the best chance to see the Northern Lights in the northern United States appears to be Monday night. The map below on the left shows the weather forecast for Monday. Areas in red are most likely to see the aurora borealis, and areas in green are least likely. Even if you live south of the red line on the map, you may still be able to see the Northern Lights if you look towards the northern horizon.
Many areas of Alaska and Canada have the best chance of seeing the Northern Lights on both Monday and Tuesday, as usual, due to their proximity to the North Pole. Fourteen states are above the observation line, meaning there is at least a small chance of seeing the Northern Lights on Monday. These states include Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Tuesday’s forecast, seen in the map on the right above, shows a low chance of auroras lighting up the night sky, even in Alaska and Canada. However, you may still be able to catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights in some northern states. States above the view line include Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Maine.
As you can see, the further north you go, the more likely you are to see the brilliant Northern Lights.
If you live further south, say in Texas or Florida; More powerful geomagnetic storm events will be needed There is a chance to see the Northern Lights.
According to SWPC scale, a small G1 storm will make the Northern Lights commonly visible in the Upper Peninsula of Maine and Michigan. A mild G2 storm could push the aurora slightly south into New York and Idaho.
Once the storm reaches G3 status, the Northern Lights will be visible as far south as Illinois and Oregon. If it reaches G4 strength, people living in Alabama and Northern California may have a chance to see the Northern Lights. The solar activity that causes G5 storms, the largest possible on SWPC scale, is known to produce aurora borealis even in Florida and southern Texas.
Murtagh says if you live in a southern state like Florida, Texas or even Hawaii, in addition to a G4 or G5 storm, you’ll also need a few other pieces to get the perfect alignment. This includes storms impacting the Earth around 8 or 9 PM (you can actually see light), clear skies, and views away from the light pollution caused by cities and towns.
However, more severe geomagnetic storms are rare. For example, G1 storms can occur 1,700 times per solar cycle (more on that later), or about 900 days per 11 years. G5-strength storms are likely to occur only about four times during a solar cycle.
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