This weekend, Cuba’s National Security Council convened a meeting, described by state media as focusing on “plans and measures to take steps toward a state of war,” just a day after the country received the remains of 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the recent U.S. operation aimed at capturing former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
In the early hours of January 3, U.S. forces detained Maduro and his wife, “first combatant” Cilia Flores, at the Miraflores Palace. While both Caracas and Havana had long insisted that the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) had minimal involvement in Venezuela, following the arrests, the Cuban Communist Party acknowledged the deaths of 32 Cuban soldiers. This admission corroborated extensive research indicating that the Castro regime had significantly entrenched itself in Venezuela, bolstering the socialist government with a substantial military presence.
Instead of coffins, the remains of the soldiers were returned in small boxes, raising questions about their deaths and the extent of destruction they may have caused.
Amid Cuba’s alliance with Maduro, former President Donald Trump, who authorized the operation to capture him, has asserted that U.S. foreign policy will soon shift focus toward Cuba, labeling it a state sponsor of terrorism that backs anti-American regimes worldwide.
“I advise reaching a deal before it’s too late. No more oil, no more money going to Cuba, no more!” Trump stated in a post on Truth Social on January 11.
A national propaganda outlet reported that the Castro government had organized a defense council to “analyze and approve plans and measures for steps toward a state of war.” The report provided scant details, mentioning merely that this “state of war” was “part of the country’s preparations based on the strategic concept of all-people’s war.”
Raul Castro, the 94-year-old dictator, remarked that he was closely monitoring developments and felt the meeting was productive. Although he is the sole leader, he often uses Miguel Díaz-Canel, the official “president,” to communicate on less significant issues.
While the statement about the “state of war” didn’t clarify against whom Cuba might be preparing to go to war, given recent events, the United States seems the likely target. Cuban independent media have reported that the government has not specified whether this “state of war” is a precautionary measure or the groundwork for an imminent declaration of war.
“It’s uncertain whether that declaration has actually happened, or if this was just a review of existing protocols,” the media outlet noted.
Cuba’s regime has heavily invested in aggressive propaganda aimed at uniting its citizens against the U.S. and pressuring the Trump administration. Recently, the official newspaper conveyed threats attributed to Cubans on social media, indicating they would harm Americans.
“They know if they come here they will die,” one alleged social media user claimed. “If I were them, I’d be worried about what their erratic president might do. It’s a sure path to disaster.”
The Communist Party harshly punishes dissenting speech, including on social media, and has been scrutinized for promoting fake profiles that distribute state propaganda. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has increased humanitarian aid targeted at victims of Hurricane Melissa in Cuba. Notably, protests against the regime have surged in recent months, suggesting that anti-American rhetoric is not effectively suppressing public dissent.
Additionally, independent media have reported a recent uptick in military mobilization, with families of service members facing significant movement restrictions. Observers noted that Cuban military assets appear outdated and ill-equipped for serious conflict.
Of the roughly 70 MIG aircraft supplied by the Soviet Union, only about 10 are operational. Most airstrips, even major military bases, are in poor repair.
Similar issues plague the helicopter fleet. Between 2010 and 2012, key models were mostly sold off for parts, while remaining units have become relics used for occasional tasks without real combat readiness.
As for the naval fleet—it’s scarcely worth discussing. The so-called “modern” vessels are merely aging patrol boats stationed at strategic points.
At the time of reporting, the Trump administration had not commented on the supposed “state of war,” nor had Castro’s government clarified its intentions regarding military action. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Venezuelan regime is cooperating with Washington through interim President Delcy Rodríguez, who was Maduro’s former vice president.
