Decision day dawns in Iowa with Trump far ahead

DES MOINES, Iowa — Decision day has finally arrived in Iowa.

The big question is whether voters in the Hawkeye State can pull off a big surprise that upsets all polls and predictions.

The biggest wild card will be the weather, with the state expected to be covered in snow and temperatures in Des Moines expected to range from a low of -19 degrees to a high of -1 degree.

“No one can predict what tomorrow's electorate will look like,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters in Dubuque, a campaign stop, on Sunday.

Still, virtually everyone predicts former President Trump to win.

The average Iowa poll maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) shows Trump with a 35-point lead. The highly respected Des Moines Register's final poll, released Saturday night, gave Trump a 28-point lead.

But President Trump's final push for an overwhelming victory was hampered by weather conditions, forcing him to cancel three of the four rallies he had planned for the final weekend of the campaign.

At one rally in Indianola, President Trump urged his supporters to caucus as if “we were down by one point.”

The statement reflected the Trump campaign's fears of complacency.

Some aides have also begun to subtly lower expectations, talking about the fact that victory is still important, even if it's by a small margin. Team Trump is still grimacing at memories of 2016, when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) was defeated in the caucuses.

Even so, one should not underestimate the enthusiasm of Trump supporters.

His rally in Indianola was packed despite subzero temperatures and slippery roads.

Ahead of the former president's appearance, the audience was shown a video outlining how the caucus works, and another in which he spoke about the nation's challenges in a very different tone and featured the refrain, “God made Trump.”

No other candidate can draw such crowds or make such claims.

Gene Batley, an Air Force veteran from Indianola, attended the event wearing an American flag shirt and a “God, Guns, Trump” baseball cap.

Buttley, who serves as Trump's caucus chairman, told The Hill that his support for the former president is based on his belief that Trump is “a man of his word.” He's not lying to the American people. ”

Mr. Butley did not dismiss other Republican candidates out of hand. But he said they did not show enough loyalty to the former president.

People like former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and DeSantis “have some kind of strong characteristics, but I actually think they've forgotten what Donald Trump did for them. '' said Mr Butley.

Another attendee, George Hutton, 68, who lives near St. Charles, Iowa, praised the former president's “determination,” saying he would have “closed the border” and “led the world, which Biden was unable to do.” We will be able to take control,” he said. end. “

Rival candidates, especially Haley, have said they have a better chance of winning than Trump.

Haley's campaign amplified a new poll released Sunday by CBS News/YouGov that showed the former ambassador beat President Biden by a larger margin than Trump or DeSantis. According to the poll, Ms. Haley had an 8-point lead over President Biden, while Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis had leads of only 2 and 3 points, respectively.

Haley has been delivering stump speeches these days, almost memorized, in which she argues that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections and shouldn't suffer another “nail-biter” this year. It also includes the feeling that there is no such thing.

But efforts by Ms. Haley and Ms. DeSantis to attack Mr. Trump on the basis of his chances of winning were undermined by Mr. Biden's low approval ratings.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, gave Biden an approval rating of just 33 percent, giving the network the lowest lead in the White House since President George W. Bush faltered late in the presidential campaign. He pointed out that this is the lowest approval rating among residents. his second term. Trump's lowest approval rating as president was 36%.

Questions also remain about whether Haley is drawing enough enthusiasm from her supporters, especially given the challenging circumstances.

According to a Des Moines Register poll, only 9% of her supporters feel “very enthusiastic” about her candidacy, which is significantly lower than Trump or DeSantis. Indicates a serious vulnerability.

As for DeSantis, he remains hopeful that Iowa can make some kind of comeback after a well-documented campaign struggle.

DeSantis currently ranks third in most Iowa polling averages, including The Hill/DDHQ poll, but his events are at least on par with Haley's in both attendance and energy levels. I can feel that there is.

DeSantis' supporters have great confidence in his ground operation, and independent observers agree that it is strong.

Ken Cuccinelli, a former Virginia attorney general and founder of Never Back Down, a major super PAC supporting DeSantis, said the group knocked on 900,000 to 1 million doors in Iowa. He says he is. This is an astronomical number, considering the highest turnout ever recorded for the Iowa Republican caucuses in 2016 was about 187,000 people.

“We know we're going to make a difference tomorrow,” Cucinelli told The Hill on Sunday evening. “When you have record-breaking weather, organization becomes even more important to success. I think DeSantis will significantly outperform expectations. I think Haley will crash.”

Jennifer Turner, a DeSantis supporter from Urbandale, Iowa, told The Hill at an event in West Des Moines that the polls are overstated.

“My friends and neighbors don't agree with the polls at all. I think Governor DeSantis' approval rating is much higher than the polls show,” Turner said. “I know very few Nikki Haley supporters.”

DeSantis himself told reporters in Dubuque: I like being underestimated and I like being the underdog. ”

But for all candidates, there comes a point where the outcome becomes out of control. Instead, their fate will be in the hands of Iowans heading to the caucus site of 1,567 on Monday night.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.