Recent polls indicate that Democrat Mikie Cheryl holds a small but definite advantage over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.
Cheryl (D-NJ) leads with 45% compared to Ciattarelli’s 37%, though 16% of voters remain undecided, according to a Fairy Dickinson University survey released this Tuesday.
The findings suggest that Ciattarelli’s support is a bit less solid; 87% of Democrats say they are likely to back Cheryl, while 86% of Republicans express similar feelings for Ciattarelli.
“Typically, partisans will vote for their party’s candidate unless some significant issue arises,” noted Dan Cassino, director of the FDU poll.
“While Republicans are closing the gap, the state still has a larger Democratic base. Ciattarelli will need to appeal more to Independents and some Democrats if he wishes to come out on top.”
The poll revealed that 41% of Independents were undecided, with 30% siding with Cheryl and 23% with Ciattarelli. Interestingly, a mere 2% of self-identified Democrats are backing Republican candidates.
Cheryl appears to have a strong backing across various demographics, as indicated by another recent Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS survey that showed him with a lead of about 20 points after the June primary.
For Ciattarelli, winning this gubernatorial election would make him the first Republican to do so since Chris Christie in 2013—especially notable since he narrowly lost to Governor Murphy just a few years ago.
Democrats may be concerned about any voter discontent related to former President Joe Biden’s policies. With Republicans currently in power in Washington, the overall atmosphere could influence voter sentiment.
“Ciattarelli is really trying to focus on local issues to steer clear of conversations about President Trump,” Cassino explained. “If the race becomes too nationalized, it could hinder Ciattarelli, even if it does resonate with certain Republican voters.”
Polling suggests that 81% of voters who approve of Trump’s performance will support Ciattarelli, while 77% who disapprove are likely to lean towards Cheryl.
“Ciattarelli is treading carefully with his connection to Trump. He needs that support without making the race too national or alienating those who are frustrated with the current political climate in D.C.,” Cassino remarked.
Conversely, Cheryl seems to have no qualms about criticizing Trump as much as he wants.
The FDU poll gathered responses from 806 voters via phone interviews conducted between July 17 and 23, with a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.
