Republican former Gov. Paul LePage has gained ground in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where a series of fraud cases emerged during years of Democratic control in the state.
LePage leads Democrat Matt Dunlap 52% to 47% among likely voters, according to the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s final poll of the race. Another 1% support a different candidate, and 1% remain undecided.
The numbers have shifted sharply since September, when Dunlap led 51% to 45%. LePage has moved from a six-point deficit to a five-point lead in a little over a month.
Party support is largely holding steady: 99% of Democrats surveyed support Dunlap, while LePage has the backing of 97% of Republicans. Dunlap leads among independents, with 62% support, but that hasn’t been enough to keep him ahead overall.
Dunlap’s favorability ratings have also fallen. Thirty percent of likely voters view him favorably, compared with 49% who view him unfavorably. That puts his net rating at minus 19, down from plus 4 in September. Sixteen percent have a neutral view of him, while 5% say they don’t know enough to decide.
LePage’s ratings remain underwater, too: 45% view him favorably and 52% unfavorably. Still, his net rating of minus 7 is seven points better than it was in September.
The poll surveyed 1,722 Maine residents online from Oct. 27 to Oct. 31, 2026. Among the 802 likely voters surveyed in the 2nd District, the margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
The results are not uniformly favorable to Republicans. In the Senate race, Democrat Troy Jackson leads incumbent Republican Susan Collins 54% to 45%. Collins trailed by four points in September. Her net favorability rating is minus 15, while Jackson’s is minus 1.
Collins has previously outperformed polling. In 2020, she won reelection by about eight points despite trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in public polls, including some surveys that showed Gideon ahead by double digits.
UNH said Democrats have largely made the election a referendum on President Trump, and that Democratic voters appear more interested and motivated than Republicans. LePage, meanwhile, appears to have focused his campaign on Dunlap, Maine’s state auditor.
The campaigns did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
