Democrats have privately acknowledged growing anxiety about Tuesday night's debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, arguing that her performance could significantly affect her reputation as a candidate.
Four years ago, Harris had a good night against former Vice President Mike Pence, but the most memorable moment from that debate may have been the fly that landed on Pence's head.
Harris' public speeches have been meticulously planned since President Biden dropped out of the race and handed the baton to her, and her long nights on the debate stage with only paper, pen and a bottle of water have created a lot of uncertainty that is unsettling Democrats.
Democratic strategist and former Senate aide Ray Zaccaro said Democrats recognize that a key debate could have “devastating or even significant consequences” after Biden's campaign suffered a setback in the June 27 debate with Trump.
He said Democrats were already nervously awaiting this week's debate, with the Democratic convention in full swing in Chicago, knowing that an hour on stage could be the difference between success or failure for a candidate who largely avoided the spotlight as vice president.
“We were already walking away from the convention with anxiety about how this debate was actually going to turn out. People are very worried about her performance,” he said. “There's a real sense of caution about the expectations for her performance.”
Strategists said Harris, a former prosecutor and senator who served in Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, is capable of putting in a strong performance, but that sometimes the outcome of a debate can be determined by little things, like a candidate looking at the clock, like George H.W. Bush did in 1992, or letting out a heavy sigh, like Al Gore did in 2000.
Zaccaro said Harris has yet to achieve the kind of spontaneous campaign magic that made former President Barack Obama a star in 2008, in part because her campaign has carefully managed her public appearances.
“Given how well Harris' campaign is going, I think there have been relatively few setbacks and everything is going according to plan. Looking at the current polls, I'm a little surprised she's not higher in the polls. This is a make-or-break moment for Harris,” he said.
“I don't think I've ever seen a candidate have as much impact in a single moment as this candidate did in Tuesday's debate,” he added.
A Democratic senator, who requested anonymity, said there was growing anxiety within the party ahead of Harris's speech.
“Any aware, informed Democrat should be worried. How can they not be worried? All of these battleground states are 48-48. [percent]49-49 [percent] “And there's a lot of support for Trump that you can't understand, but it's there,” the senator said, explaining that voters' views on the economy are a factor.
“Yes, she's nervous,” the senator said. “She hasn't been tested. I think she's going to be better prepared than anyone and go through every foreseeable scenario of what Trump might say or do on stage.”
“I think what's important in this debate is having three really good lines,” the senator added.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,695 voters nationwide released Monday found Trump with 48 percent approval and Harris with 47 percent.
The poll found that while voters' views of Trump are largely stable, 28% of voters said they needed to know more about Harris.
Two-thirds of likely voters said they needed to know more about Harris' policies and plans, while fewer than half said the same about Trump.
Pollster Nate Silver gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College, but other political forecasters rate the race as even.
Republicans have expressed concern about Trump's performance in this week's debate, with prominent strategists urging him to stay on topic and avoid personal attacks that could make him appear a rude bully and further alienate female voters.
Harris is fully aware of the importance of her campaign, having holed up for days at the Omni William Penn Hotel in Pittsburgh in preparation for a direct confrontation with Trump.
Harris' training is being led by Karen Dunn, a former adviser to Hillary Clinton, who faced off against Trump in three debates during the 2016 election.
Her campaign also brought in former Clinton senior adviser Philip Reines to play Trump in the rehearsal, wearing a power suit and long red tie for added realism.
Other Democratic strategists have said Harris has a chance of beating Trump in the Nov. 5 debate if she can “survive” the debate without making any major gaffes or leaving voters in doubt about her leadership vision.
“She has to survive this debate, which shouldn't be as important as what's coming up, but it is,” one strategist said. “If she survives this debate and does well, then we're 10, 15 days away from that when early voting starts in some of these states and the race is on.”
For example, in Pennsylvania, mail-in voting becomes available 50 days before Election Day.
Strategists said Harris' performance will be key in making her presence known to white working-class voters in key battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that form the “blue wall” Democrats are counting on to defeat President Trump.
“There's a problem with white working-class voters, and Trump is doing very well among them,” the Democrat acknowledged.
Strategists said Democrats were wary that the polls might not reflect some voters' reluctance to elect a Black woman as president.
“There are those who wouldn't be uncomfortable with a black woman becoming president of the United States. It's hard to gauge,” the source warned. “There are older white voters who identified with Biden and voted for him. … It's possible that Biden will lose some of that. But younger people are very enthusiastic about her right now.”
If Harris loses any of these blue wall states, she would need to win more traditionally Republican states, such as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
“This is a very close election in North Carolina right now,” said Morgan Jackson, a Raleigh, North Carolina-based Democratic strategist, adding that “suburban white women” are a key part of the electorate, along with young people and black voters who make up the Democratic base.
But he said a lot was riding on Tuesday night.
“The stakes are high in this debate,” he said. “I think Harris has a real opportunity to present herself to voters and make her case against Donald Trump.”
“This is a serious debate, a very serious debate.”
