Democrats reportedly fear a “Trump surge” among male voters, based on polls that have historically not accurately reflected support for former President Donald Trump.
“Trump, [previously] “The numbers are pretty high,” said Celinda Lake, one of the two lead pollsters for President Joe Biden's 2020 campaign. said of hill“Most polling agencies are calibrating. We are now looking at two turnout estimates: one is the average, the other is [a] “Trump surge”
She said that with polls showing battleground states close, “I think we still need to be concerned about Trump's surge.”
If that happens, Harris will not have the luxury of hillThat's because, according to a Decision Desk HQ polling average, Harris leads by just 3.4 points nationally and by less than a percentage point in two of the three key “blue wall” states, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Wisconsin, Harris leads by 3 points.
Adding to this fear is the fact that Trump has “consistently outperformed” poll numbers in the past.
Past polls have accurately predicted support for Democratic candidates, but not for Trump. hill He said.
For example, RealClearPolitics' (RCP) final polling average before Election Day in 2016 underestimated Trump's share of the vote by about seven points. The RCP average projected Trump to receive 40.3 percent of the vote, but Trump actually won with Hillary Clinton's 47.2 percent of the vote.
Possible reasons include polling models underestimating rural and suburban voter turnout for Trump, Trump supporters being reluctant to respond to surveys, or some poll respondents lying about who they support.
According to the report, national polling was worse in 2020 than in 2016. The RCP's final average underestimated Trump's popular vote share by about three points. It also underestimated Trump's support in Wisconsin by nearly five points.
According to reports, there hasn't been enough polling since last week's debate to show whether it has made a difference.
Pro-Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis said in a memo that their polling showed Trump's approval rating increasing by two points while Harris' approval rating was “flat,” while a Morning Consult poll showed Harris leading by five points nationally.
Currently, Decision Desk HQ estimates Harris' chances of winning at 54% but the firm's director of data science, Scott Tranter, cautions against taking that figure for granted.
he hill That means if there are 20 elections, Harris would win 11 and Trump would win nine.
“If a 54 percent chance makes sense to you, then maybe you need to understand a little bit more about probability,” he said. “It's like a coin toss. Just like you wouldn't be surprised if you flipped a coin and it came up tails, nobody should be surprised if Kamala Harris wins or Donald Trump wins.”
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