As Americans prepare to vote, Democrats are currently leading significantly in early voting and mail-in ballots, establishing a notable majority in the votes cast to date.
State election data analyzed by TargetSmart and NBC News shows that among early and mail-in voters, 54% are Democrats, while 30% belong to the Republican Party, and 16% identify as independents or “other.”
This early voting advantage is apparent in critical Senate races, even in several Republican-leaning states.
Nearly 8 million Americans had cast their votes by Friday night, with Democratic candidates gaining favorable margins in key Senate battlegrounds.
In Michigan, for example, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is competing against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), and the Democratic voter registration advantage stands at 55% to 36%.
Iowa shows a similar trend, with registered Democrats holding a 57-29% lead over Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Democrat Josh Turek, along with 14% from “other.”
Maine adds to the mix, where Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is facing Democrat Troy Jackson. Here, registered Democrats have a significant lead of 55% to 19%, with over a quarter of the ballots coming from “other” voters.
It’s important to note that this data reflects voter turnout and registrations rather than how individuals actually voted.
“Democrats definitely hold an enthusiasm advantage,” noted Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky.
However, it’s still unclear if these early figures indicate a broader surge of voters or if they primarily represent those who are regular voters, he mentioned.
A useful point of comparison is the voting landscape from four years prior.
In Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is competing against independent Dan Osborne, the Democratic advantage has strengthened, with current numbers at 45-38 compared to 44-41 at the same time in the 2022 elections.
Interestingly, of those Democrats who voted in Nebraska, 89% had also voted in both 2022 and this election cycle, while only 10% are new voters, according to the state secretary.
For Republicans, the numbers depict a different picture, as 91% voted in prior elections while just 7% are first-time voters.
Virginia has seen an impressive rise in early turnout, with 519,000 ballots cast compared to 260,000 at the same time last year—especially evident in the left-leaning Fairfax County where participation has doubled.
In Texas, the race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and AG Ken Paxton (R-Texas) shows a notable Democratic edge of 62% to 32%.
While it’s typical for Democrats to lean towards early or mail-in voting, former President Trump has frequently criticized mail-in voting, promoting in-person voting instead, claiming it to be “inherently corrupt.”
This year, though, there’s been a slight shift in his messaging during campaign stops and online.
In a recent Oval Office video, Trump urged supporters: “If your state has early voting, do not wait. Go out and vote. Vote early, vote by mail, or vote in person on Election Day, November 3rd, so we can defeat the radical left ‘Dumocrats’ in a midterm victory that is too big to rig.”
He even suggested that voters should “pretend I’m on the ballot.”
