Democrats, remember: Veterans and military families are not a monolithic voting bloc  

Veterans and military families will play a vital role in the upcoming 2024 election, and it is the responsibility of Democrats to not waste this opportunity.

This race is once again shaping up to be the most important election of our lifetimes. Key states and districts have large numbers of voters who are veterans and military families, and this demographic group could play a decisive role in the outcome.

There are many reasons why veterans and military families are likely to play an important role in 2024. Veterans and military families have unique concerns and priorities. They are often concerned with “table” issues such as health care, education, and the economy, but they are also interested in and directly affected by national security and foreign policy issues. These concerns are likely to be reflected in voting decisions.

Veterans and military families are a large and diverse demographic. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 16 million United States Veterans, and about 1.4 million Active duty military personnel. This group is expected to decline in the coming years, as smaller armies serving in conflicts are not producing as many veterans as they did at the height of the Iraq War surge or the Vietnam War draft. ing. In 1980, about 18 percent of Americans served in some form of military service, but by 2022 that number has fallen to just about 6 percent. According to Pew.

The lack of military ties among Americans has created a real rift between military personnel and civilians. Increasingly, the only contact the American people have with the military is during sporting events and on television.

Veterans and military families are politically active and civically engaged. They are more likely to follow the news closely and participate in the community. According to a 2021 Military Times survey. As more women and minorities join the military, the demographics of the veteran community are expected to change accordingly.

Importantly, the misconception that veterans are a reliable conservative voting base is changing.according to 2009 report by Gallup, veterans were more likely to be Republican than non-veterans. However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable shift to the left among military voters.

in 2016 exit poll According to the New York Times, veterans voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 61 percent to 34 percent. But after nearly four years in office, many of those voters have changed their allegiance.

In preparation for the 2020 election, Military Times and Syracuse University investigation The proportion of active duty soldiers shows Democratic candidate Joe Biden has a slight advantage over President Trump among military personnel, with Biden at 41%, Trump at 37%, and third-party candidates at 13%. It has become. The same 2020 Military Times poll found that a whopping 50% of active-duty soldiers had an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of their commander-in-chief. A subsequent poll in October showed Trump with a 59% lead among veterans 55 and older, but not among younger voters. By Election Day in 2020, Mr. Trump’s vote share among veteran voters had fallen to 54%, while Mr. Biden had risen to 44%, according to New York Times exit polls. This was a 10-point change compared to four years ago.

In addition to the overall shift in voting patterns, the geographic spread of veterans and military families could make them an important demographic to appeal to.Biden won Pennsylvania. Only 1.2%the density of nearly 7 percent veterans could significantly sway votes, especially in key races like Trump’s 7th District, which is home to Rep. Susan Wilde. hold a gathering this weekend.Similarly, Biden won Georgia by a narrow margin. 0.3 percent, has a veteran density of 9 percent and several important military installations.Biden in the West 0.4 percent Arizona’s vote share may be driven by military voters, as 10 percent of the state’s residents are veterans. Biden won more than 81 million votes nationally, but the effective margin in some key battleground states was reduced to 10 percentage points, thanks to veterans and military families (including overseas voters).

Democrats have many opportunities this year to appeal to veterans and military families. We need to focus on issues that matter to voters, such as access to affordable health care, attainable higher education, and job opportunities in the 21st century economy, especially for military spouses. . We must also consider how military families are profoundly affected by national security and foreign policy decisions and demonstrate that we are listening to their voices on the pressing issues of our time. . For example, repeating the mistakes of the post-9/11 war on terror would be viewed unfavorably by those still dealing with the aftermath of 20 years of sending troops to Iraq, Afghanistan, and about 40 other countries around the world. right.

Most importantly, veterans and military families want a commander-in-chief who is stable at the helm and guided by humanitarian values. After 20 years of war, veterans are helping feed their allies in Afghanistan, helping Ukraine defend against Putin’s aggression, and hoping for peace between Israel and Palestine. When asked for our vote, it’s up to the president to announce the results or present a plan to get there.

Naveed Shah is a U.S. Army veteran who served in Iraq and now works for the progressive veterans organization Common Defense.