Democrats are showing signs of gaining momentum in the Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D), making this year the breakthrough year Democrats have been chasing for several cycles. This is fueling the party's expectations that this may be the case.
While Cruz remains the favorite to win, and Allred's camp lacks the grassroots buzz of Beto O'Rourke's challenge to Cruz in 2018, the gap in the race is narrowing.
One recent sign of that is this week's Cook Political Report pushing the race for Democrats “more Republican” as polls suggest the race is heating up and Democrats ramp up spending. The change was made from “leaning toward the Republican Party” to “leaning toward the Republican Party.”
Even if Mr. Cruz wins, the fact that he will have to work for it is an encouraging sign for Democrats.
“There's a real race going on” for a Texas Senate seat, said the founder of the Lone Star Project, a PAC in the state that has spent 15 years quietly turning Texas' urban counties blue. said Matt Angle, co-director.
Angle stressed that doesn't mean it will be an easy race for Allred.
“Going close and winning are two different things, so something good needs to happen in the next six weeks. But I feel good,” he said.
With polls suggesting Allred is closing in, Cruz claims he appears to be “panicking” and fears Texas will turn blue unless there is an enthusiastic response from his supporters. He claimed that he was sending emails warning that this could happen.
An Emerson College poll and The Hill poll released last week found Mr. Cruz leading his Democratic challenger by four points, as did a Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll.hold current position 3 points up. According to tracking by The Hill/Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ), a late August Morning Consult poll showed Mr. Cruz up 5 points, and an early September poll showed Mr. Allred leading by 1 point. It turned out that
While polls suggest Mr Cruz remains in the lead, observers say the incumbent has struggled to get past the 50% mark, which poses a challenge for him. Most analysts believe the 6% of self-described “undecided” voters seen in Mr. Emerson's poll will decide the race.
“Basically, it's a much closer race than we expected,” said Republican strategist Matt Makowiak, who cited Allred's fundraising and predicted an easy Republican victory.
Last week, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced a multimillion-dollar ad buy in Texas and Florida targeting Mr. Cruz and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). The move came as a surprise to some as Democrats have been on the defensive, trying to protect vulnerable incumbents like Sen. Jon Tester (D) of Montana. But DSCC Chairman Gary Peters (Michigan) said the party has been preparing “throughout the entire cycle” to “take advantage of Sen. Cruz and Sen. Scott's damaged position in the state.” .
Republican strategist Makowiak said the spending was a formality, an attempt to satisfy donors without spending too much of their scarce funds on races that Democrats say they are likely to lose. insisted.
Meanwhile, the Republican Senate campaign arm faces questions about whether it is doing enough to protect its own incumbents like Mr. Cruz and Mr. Scott. A spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) denied these criticisms last week.
Six years ago, Mr. O'Rourke came within three points of unseating Mr. Cruz as a broader “blue wave” swept through that year's midterm elections. Some in the state are skeptical that Mr. Allred can cast the same energy this cycle, but Mr. Cruz's re-election bid has been bogged down by new issues that have changed the landscape since 2018. Some people claim that there are.
Cruz is still dealing with the political fallout from his ill-timed trip to Cancun, Mexico, in 2021, when Texas was hit by power outages and subzero temperatures that left hundreds dead. And the issue of abortion, which has been a win for Democrats in recent cycles, could also hamper the incumbent amid continued pushback against states' near-total bans in 2021.
Mr. Emerson's latest poll also shows that the incumbent's net approval rating is slightly lower, while Mr. Allred's net score is positive, although a remarkable 15% have not yet heard of the Democrat. I answered.
“Cruise is six years less liked than he was then,” Angle argued. “So I think Allred has a slightly better chance of breaking through than Beto.”
It's a comparison that Republicans say The Hill is unfavorable to Allred. Dallas representatives don't have the same enthusiasm that O'Rourke displayed in his 2018 campaign. In the Austin suburb where Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser lives, there was “momentum” among grassroots Democrats in that election that just wasn't there for Mr. Allred, he said. Ta.
“The proverbial college-educated suburban women were talking about Beto, there were yard signs, he was getting a lot of media attention,” Steinhauser said.
But Mr. Angle, the Democratic strategist, acknowledged that Mr. Allred's campaign has become quieter than before, but he is tired of Mr. Cruz, whom Mr. Allred is trying to characterize as an egoist. He argued that it would give him an advantage in races that would be decided by moderates and even conservatives. A freak show with no interest in actual governance.
On the other hand, Mr. Cruz Made our largest ad buy ever Allred was targeted for supporting the Equality Act, which prohibits gender discrimination in public places.
In the Red Red election, Allred “avoided the risk of holding a 'Turn Texas Blue' pep rally” as opponents attacked him with culture wars, Angle argued. “If you do that, you're going to excite Democrats, but you're also going to alert all Republicans and let them know that they're not part of the coalition.”
In a memo shared with The Hill, the Allred campaign said the Democratic Party's “unique voter coalition, campaign resources and activities, and Mr. Cruz's weaknesses all play into the Texas Senate race.” He highlighted recent polls and the Cook Political Report. shift.
Texas has voted red in White House elections since 1980, but it took 15 years for the state's executive branch to become Republican and more than 20 years for Republicans to take control of the current state Legislature. That gap has narrowed in recent decades, with the state winning by 16 points in 2012 and 9 points in 2016 for Republican candidates. President Biden narrowed that gap to about 6 percentage points in 2020.
Before Biden made his historic exit from the presidential race this summer, the DDHQ polling average had him trailing in the Lone Star State by nine points. Vice President Harris appears to have closed the gap and now leads former President Trump by 5 points.
That's a positive sign for Democrats as they look to advance into Texas, which has 40 electoral college votes, but it's not enough to suggest a reversal of the presidential election is being considered this fall.
For Mr. Angle, whether Allred wins or not, the broader trajectory lies in winning the densely populated urban and suburban counties that Democrats lost decades ago and are slowly winning back.
For example, in 2006, the Lone Star Project flipped Dallas County from Republican to Democratic, followed by Houston's Harris County in 2008. In 2012, then-President Obama won the county by less than 600 votes. The lead had widened to 218,000 votes for Democrats. By the 2020 election.
Currently, only Tarrant County, home to Fort Worth and the state's third-largest urban county, is in the Republican column, Angle said, adding that his organization trying to flip Local executives will compete in this cycle.
Angle told The Hill that the path for Democrats in this election and elsewhere will be to “move out of the cities and across the border.”
While this dynamic may not allow Democrats to win statewide this year, the outcome will still depend on breaking everything in the party's favor.
“For Democrats to be competitive here, in addition to having a uniquely hated Republican candidate at the top, they need all the basic ingredients to run a successful election. And right now, It's not clear to me what that is going on,” said Josh Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.
Blank said he wouldn't be surprised if Cruz did better than in 2018 but worse than Trump in 2020.
But in the long term, he said, the party is in trouble.
He said the state could become truly competitive by 2032 and potentially by 2028, especially if Trump wins this election and provides Democrats with an organized opponent. I predicted it would happen.
For Republican strategists, the shrinking vote total is not yet a serious threat.
“Ultimately, Trump's lead in Texas will definitely increase and Cruz will be re-elected,” Makowiak said. “The question is how far Mr. Cruz will underperform President Trump.”
But Mr. Steinhauser worried that Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump's approach risked putting the party in trouble in a state with an aging population and a minority majority.
“We have a good message and a good policy,” the Republican strategist said, but warned against national conservatism that “makes people think the only people who matter are white Christian men.” .
“That won’t fly. [for voters who] Not all of them, or two out of three, or even out of three,” he added.
