Democrats had hoped to wrap up the Maryland Senate elections by now, but they are poised to devote time and resources to trying to keep the seats in their party's hands through November in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic.
The race between Prince George's County Mayor Angela Alsobrooks (Democrat) and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (Republican) was widely expected to be a loss for the Democrat, given the state's traditionally liberal leanings and the presence of former President Donald Trump as a candidate.
But as the calendar turns to October, the odds of a close race remain slim for Democrats, with popular two-term Governor Hogan edging ever closer to Also-Brooks, and some polls suggest the two are neck and neck.
That has forced the ruling party to step up its efforts on the airwaves: Democrats outspent Republicans by nearly 6-to-1 last week, and senators and party officials expect the spending spree to continue through Election Day.
“No one takes that for granted,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) “We see a lot of advertising on television every weekday. From sporting events to Turner Classic Movies, any time you're watching television, you see an ad for the Maryland Senate.”
“I think everyone believes it's possible. … I know [Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] “He's taking this race very seriously,” Cain continued of Hogan's chances of winning the seat. “He's not going to sneak up on anybody and win. … He's [running]I remember Chuck responding that this was going to be a big investment for us Democrats to win. We can win, we will win, but we can't win by just assuming. We have to invest, and I think you can see that they have invested.”
That sentiment is widespread across the Democratic Party. One of Alsobrooks's top supporters, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), recently briefed Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on the race, saying there was “still work to be done” but predicted it would ultimately work out.
Still, some acknowledge the Prince George's County mayor has some deficiencies to overcome. The biggest one is that he's not well understood by voters right now, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the Senate Democratic campaign manager, told reporters earlier this week, and the Maryland Democrat agreed.
“Obviously, it's a challenge because she's not well known in the Baltimore area,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), whose seat is vacant due to his retirement. “So she has a challenge, there's no question about that, and I recognize that she's going to have to address that challenge.”
Polls surrounding the election have fluctuated widely in recent weeks. Emerson College/The Hill Survey Data released last week showed Also Brooks leading by seven points. AARP Poll However, a survey released in late August showed both candidates' approval ratings were tied at 46%.
An internal poll presented to GOP senators at a Republican Senatorial Committee lunch earlier this month also showed the race was neck and neck, giving Republicans an impetus.
“It's a tough situation, but he's in a good position. Obviously there's a dynamic of top contenders in Maryland and he's going to have to manage that and juggle that, but he's a very talented leader and I expect he'll be able to do it well,” said Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate.
“I think [Democrats] “We were hoping it would go away, but I guess it's a competition,” he added.
Democrats' confidence is based in part on the dynamics of the race and the difference between Hogan's gubernatorial victories, both of which came in midterm election years when Trump was not the front-runner.
Hogan's approval rating remains high (59% according to an AARP poll), but Democrats are counting on the support of Maryland voters. Democratic Control of the Senate.
Vice President Harris' margin of victory will also be important, as President Biden won Maryland by 33 percentage points in the 2020 election. Emerson/The Hill and AARP polls show Harris leading the former president by 31 and 32 points, respectively.
Democrats also see Trump's greatest weakness as his stance on abortion and reproductive rights.
He has described himself as “pro-abortion” and released two ads earlier this month highlighting reproductive rights, but Democrats have accused him of wavering on the issue and pointed to bills he has proposed. Veto as Governor Requires most insurance plans to cover abortions and removes the requirement that abortions be performed only by doctors; Withholding allocated funds To train new abortion providers.
Meanwhile, for Democrats, abortion has emerged as a key driver of voter enthusiasm and turnout.
In response, Emily's List, a political action committee that aims to elect women who support abortion rights, spent $1.1 million in support of Also-Brooks last week and is expected to pour more money into the party in the coming weeks.
“I think she makes it clear that she's going to fight for people's food concerns, she's going to fight for reproductive freedom and people's rights, and I think that's coming through, and I think we need to do more of that,” Van Hollen said.
Despite the huge amount of money already in the air, Democrats are on edge.
The super PAC that supports Hogan's efforts, “Maryland's Future,” $15 million in funding By the end of June, we have barely spent anything so far.
It will be interesting to see how the funds are used, from strengthening his stance on abortion to drawing a necessary contrast with Alsobrooks.
But the state of the race also means they will likely need to spend precious resources until the end of the campaign in one of the most Democratic states in the country, rather than pouring them into battleground states where they might be needed in the final weeks.
“I don't think this election will ever be decided,” said a Maryland Democratic activist. “I think it's going to be fought to the end.”
