Democrats are leaving the gate ahead of the 2026 Senate election, and early retirement is building up odds against them in the fight for the majority lost in the November election.
New Hampshire Sen. Jeanne Shaheen became the third Democratic incumbent Wednesday to announce she will not seek reelection in 2026, following Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith and Michigan Sen. Gary Peters.
Democrats were able to hold Senate seats in all three states in 2026. This is because the White House party historically won its position in the first midterm elections of its presidential term.
But that would certainly be a more difficult climb without the three incumbents.
Democrats also lost a massive recruit in the Michigan race.
The end result is a map that Republicans think has ripened the opportunity, and Democrats have some kind of defense.
In addition to defending seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, Democrats hope Sen. John Ossoff will win a second term in Georgia, where President Trump won in 2024.
Democrat strategists have acknowledged the hurdles, but note that mid-term history is on their side.
They hope to be able to get attacked in Maine. State Speaker Biden won in 2024, with GOP Sen. Susan Collins facing reelection. And in North Carolina, GOP Senator Tom Tillis is considered vulnerable.
And they also think that political property will turn on GOP and Trump.
New Hampshire lobbyist and Democratic strategist Jim DeMers said the 2026 Senate map added, “I think voters are starting to be really worried about what President Trump and Iron Musk are doing, as there is a possibility that a lot of Republican seats are really playing.”
“I think there's a real concern that a lot of voters have the fact that Republicans in Congress are just doing whatever Trump wants, without even asking questions,” he explained. “And if that continues, I think this whole map could look completely different in a few months.”
In New Hampshire, the GOP expects former Governor Chris Sununu to be in the race.
Republicans told the Washington Times Tuesday that they had previously left the door open for Shaheen's seat, saying they had no intention of running for the Senate.
“I'm not completely filtering that out, but the people in Washington asked me to think about it and think about it, and that's like where I am.”He told the news outlet.
Other Republicans who can take part in the race include former Trump ambassador and Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who ran the Senate in neighbouring New Hampshire in 2014 and lost.
Brown said last week he was considering taking a seat at Hill. His challenge may be to convince a voter in New Hampshire, where he is one of them. He isLiving in granite conditionFor a while, his time representing Massachusetts has been dependent on him.
“He's always been seen as having this Massachusetts-style politics, which doesn't resonate with the grassroots at all,” said Matt Moise, a New Hampshire Republican strategist and former Congressional candidate.
Brown also said that Trump broke down in 2021 after the January 6 attack on the Capitol, and that the president was “absolutely” responsible for the attack.
“There's a huge amount of skepticism about him from the base,” Moise said.
A familiar source confirmed to the hill that Moises himself has also received an outreach on the Republican side to fill Shaheen's seats.
Sources who spoke to the hill said Rep. Chris Pappas (DN.H.) and Maggie Goodlander (DN.H.) are considering a Senate bid. Former Congressman Annie Custer (DN.H.) told Axios she would do so. Consider doing it If Pappas does not participate in the race.
In Michigan, Democrats have brushed off Battigigue's decision, claiming it is not a major obstacle to keeping a seat.
Buttigieg himself noted that he has not lived in the state for a long time, and his decision to sit down this cycle was widely seen as being made with an eye on the 2028 presidential election.
“No, there's a very deep bench in Michigan, and a lot of people will be outstanding senators,” Peters told Hill on Thursday.
“I think [in New Hampshire]there's a good democratic bench there too, and there's one in Minnesota. So I'm sure we're going to beat all these states,” he continued.
Minnesota is certainly a blue state for Democrats in the presidential election, and has not elected a GOP Senator since 2002.
Senate Democrats' campaign spokesman David Bergstein also suggested that the party has an opportunity to pick up, taking into account the mid-term environment.
“This Senate map is ripe for offensive opportunities available to Democrats, especially as medium-term backlash is built against Republicans,” he said in a statement. “The state's open seat GOP hasn't won for decades. They don't change the basics of the cycle. Republicans have more seats to protect. They do that in a hostile political environment.”
