Weather patterns that brought heavy rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana earlier this week are set to move eastward, leading to potential threats of severe weather and prolonged flash flooding early next week.
The southern and mid-Atlantic regions are facing an increasing risk of thunderstorms extending towards northern Alabama, north Georgia, and western North Carolina, as reported by the Fox Forecast Center.
This storm will continue to follow a stagnant cold front throughout the weekend, with rainfall estimates ranging from 3 to 5 inches across areas from Florida to the Carolinas, and some locations may receive even more.
The intense storm threatens western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee
A significant storm is expected on Thursday afternoon, bringing the risk of large hail and strong winds to cities such as Knoxville, Tennessee, and Asheville, North Carolina.
There’s also a tornado risk associated with these storms. The NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms in the affected areas.
The threat of flash floods in the southeast continues through the weekend
The most severe flooding this week has reportedly hit southern Louisiana, with some areas experiencing over 8 inches of rain in just 24 hours.
There were persistent storms that dumped excessive rain over the same regions, particularly between I-10 and I-49 near Lake Charles, Louisiana.
This unusual weather pattern for May, referred to as an omega block, is mostly responsible for the stagnant conditions, resulting in prolonged warmth in some areas while others continue to receive steady rainfall.
The National Weather Service in New Orleans cautions that the aftermath of the rainfall could be equally serious, as many streams and rivers in the lower Mississippi Valley are at moderate flood stages and may experience weeks of elevated water levels.
How much rain can you expect?
Computer models predict a wide range of 2 to 5 inches of rain over the coming days, with some areas potentially experiencing totals of up to a foot next week.
Cities like Tallahassee, Florida; Savannah, Georgia; and Charleston, South Carolina, lie within the heaviest precipitation zone, where cumulative rainfall might approach double digits before this rainy weather pattern dissipates.
In places such as Panama City, Florida, and Gulfport, Mississippi, forecasts estimate 2 to 3 inches, but localized storms could bring much heavier rainfall, which may not be captured in these figures.
While flash flood threats are increasing as the week progresses, they are not yet at critical levels, perhaps due to many areas along the East Coast being in drought and needing this rainfall.
Reports indicate that flash floods are the deadliest weather-related threat in the United States, with an annual average of 127 fatalities based on NOAA data. Even just 6 inches of rapidly moving water can sweep adults off their feet, and floodwaters can lift vehicles.
