DETROIT — A race for the Michigan House seat once held by the late John Conyers, a longtime co-founder of the Congressional Black Caucus, is pitting two unlikely candidates against one another, and a Black Republican running in the race told The Washington Post that it highlights the dangers for Donald Trump.
In the blue corner is Shri Thanedar (69), an Indian-American Democratic congressman who represents the largest black city in the United States.
In the red corner is Martell Bivings, a 37-year-old black Republican who is aiming for a major upset victory this November.
The mere existence of a candidate like Bibbings is highly unusual in heavily Democratic Detroit, where a Republican hasn't held public office since Keith Butler served on the Detroit City Council in the 1990s. Bibbings has raised less than $24,000 so far and has about $11,000 in his bank account, according to Open Secrets.
Thanedar rose to prominence in 2018 when he ran against Gretchen Whitmer in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, which Whitmer won and went on to win.
But Thanedar received more votes than Whitmer in Detroit, and since then, she has won two elections, first for the Michigan House of Representatives and then for Congress.
Aside from his boy-band hairstyle, which has sparked speculation he is wearing a wig, Thanedar is known for showering large amounts of cash on his opponents: The businessman and scientist wrote a $5 million cheque to his own campaign to win the 2022 Lok Sabha elections.
As of last reporting, Thanedar had raised $7 million for this year's contest and still had $4.8 million left in his bank account.
In addition to Goliath Thanedar, who handily defeated Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters in the primary, Bivings faces another obstacle: a lack of belief among Republicans that his district is worth investing in.
The 2024 election will be a rematch of the 2022 election in which Thanedar won by 110,000 votes, 71% to 24%.
“It's not going to be a threat until 8 p.m. on Election Day,” Bibbings said at a recent fundraiser in suburban Detroit.
Republicans see it similarly.
A source familiar with the RNC's thinking told The Post that the organization plans to target about 37 elections this year.
The four races in Michigan are Paul Hudson versus incumbent Hillary Scholten in West Michigan, a rematch between incumbent John James and Carl Marlinga in Macomb County, Tom Barrett versus Curtis Hertel in the Lansing area for the seat being vacated by Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, and Paul Junge versus state Sen. Kristen McDonald-Rivett. The final Flint-area seat has been held by a family called the Kildees since the late 1970s, first by Dale and then by his nephew Dan, who is not seeking reelection.
Sources say David vs. Goliath, or even Bivings vs. Thanedar, doesn't fit the NRCC criteria. Republicans want to invest in elections with margins of 4 points or less, not impossible dreams.
Another source, a Republican consultant, told The Post that Bivings needs to make a “business case” to gain more support from the party.
“If he can say, 'I'm going to give Donald Trump a 3-point victory in Detroit,' that might be worth it,” the source said.
The candidate told The Washington Post that national thinking doesn't take local feelings into account.
“My qualitative intuition is that the poorer an area is, the more likely it is to vote Republican,” Bivings said. “Nobody is immersed in poverty.”
That premonition was largely absent from the donor base: Bivings said he's had donors with a five-figure history write him a $200 check instead.
Bibbings said he's heard some optimistic talk among Republicans that Donald Trump might win 20% of the black male vote in cities like Detroit, but he cautions not to get your hopes up.
“I know black men. I'm related to black men,” Bibbings said. “They won't go to the polls. They'll say, 'I can't go to the polls. Election Day was last week.'
