Bitcoin Price Drop and Jane Street Speculations

Since late 2025, Bitcoin has seen a consistent drop every morning right after New York’s market opens, and fans on X are laying the blame squarely on Jane Street. It’s an interesting theory that has caught the attention of many, especially retail insiders, who claim that the company’s actions have drastically reduced its assets from $125,000 to $62,000 in recent months.

However, market data and insights into how exchange-traded funds (ETFs) operate indicate that the situation might not be so clear-cut. CoinDesk attempted to get a response from Jane Street regarding these Bitcoin allegations, though no comment had been received by the time it was morning in Europe.

This is insane. The 10 a.m. operation has stopped since Jane Street was sued two days ago. Bitcoin rose 10%, increasing its market cap by $120 billion, and the BTC weekly candle turned green after five consecutive red candles. The entire crypto market increased by nearly $200… pic.twitter.com/4dCrFewTE4

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 25, 2026

Allegations of Market Manipulation

The rumors making the rounds suggest that Jane Street—one of the largest trading firms globally—has been deliberately selling Bitcoin every day at 10 a.m. ET to drive the price down and acquire ETFs cheaply. Reports indicate that Bitcoin has been experiencing a consistent drop of about 2-3% immediately after the US cash market opens since early November. Some traders believe that Jane Street’s sizeable stake in BlackRock’s IBIT, valued at over $2.5 billion, could be behind this strategy, apparently aimed at acquiring spot ETFs at a discount, as noted by a well-known account on X last December.

Recent filings reveal that Jane Street held about $790 million in IBIT stock at the end of 2025. Co-founders of Glassnode, a blockchain analysis firm, have also pointed out that the public disclosure of the Jane Street lawsuit coincidentally occurred at 10 a.m. on the same day as Bitcoin’s fluctuations.

The timing of these events raises eyebrows. The lawsuit, filed by the bankruptcy administrator of TerraForm Labs, alleges insider trading that contributed significantly to Terra’s collapse in 2022. Following the news, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 6%, nearing $70,000, marking a sharp increase following a period of decline.

Back in June, India’s financial authority took steps to ban Jane Street from the local market due to alleged manipulation tactics involving a “pump and dump” scheme related to the Bank Nifty index. This situation sheds some historical context on Jane Street’s reputation.

Market Data Offers a Different Perspective

Despite the buzz surrounding these allegations, cryptocurrency economist Alex Krueger argues that available data does not support the idea of a systematic price drop at 10 a.m. His research indicates that during this timeframe, the IBIT ETF actually experienced a cumulative gain of about 0.9%, contrary to popular belief.

So everyone says Bitcoin crashes daily at 10 a.m. I’ve got the data, and it’s not true. Since January 1, IBIT’s returns for the 10:00-10:30 window are up 0.9%, while the early 10:00-10:15 window shows a -1%. It’s not a systematic dump.

— Alex Kruger (@krugermacro) February 26, 2026

Moreover, Krueger points out that the data reflects the performance of the Nasdaq closely. This suggests that the so-called “10 a.m. dump” is more of a reflection of broader market dynamics rather than the manipulative actions of Jane Street. It’s essential to remember that Jane Street is just one player in a larger, regulated ecosystem that governs ETF trading.

“There’s no single entity instructing you to ‘dump your Bitcoin,'” said Yale Lesoleil, chief technology officer at an Ethereum-based financial infrastructure firm. “The very structure of ETF trading can create a gray area affecting price discovery without breaches of rules,” noted Ale Reysoleil from the same firm.

Spot ETFs track Bitcoin’s price and are traded on stock exchanges. Authorized Participants (APs), like Jane Street, are tasked with managing ETF shares to align with market demands efficiently. They can create new shares in-kind, allowing them to exchange actual Bitcoin, which can contribute to price volatility.

Trading Dynamics and Price Fluctuations

When Bitcoin prices rise during Asian or European trading sessions, demand for ETFs often increases in the early U.S. hours, leading to a spike in prices. To balance this, APs may introduce additional shares while sometimes employing short-selling tactics to manage overall trading flow. This short-selling process can generate downward pressure temporarily.

Although such moves are legally permitted and are not regarded as manipulation, they might explain the volatility at 10 a.m. Krueger and others argue that this speculation often arises from a pessimistic outlook that traditionally follows Bitcoin’s downturns.

So far, Jane Street has not publicly responded to these theories, and there has been no concrete evidence tying the firm to a coordinated attempt to manipulate Bitcoin’s price.

Updated (February 26, 14:25 UTC): The headline has been revised for clarity.