Chicago Bears’ Season Performance: A Mixed Bag
Ben Johnson has already made a significant impact on the Bears’ offense. They’ve surged from 28th to 8th in scoring, improved their passing game from 31st to 16th, and made a remarkable jump from 25th to 2nd in rushing. The first-year head coach, known for his creativity back in Detroit, is instilling a sense of confidence that translates performances into wins.
This week, the Bears garnered attention after defeating the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles on the road, followed by the Carolina Panthers’ win over the Los Angeles Rams. This pushed Chicago into the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The crucial question remains: do they truly deserve this ranking, or did they simply stumble into it?
It’s a tricky question. Sure, the Bears beat the Eagles to earn their spot, a symbolic win that felt long overdue. But there’s a nagging feeling that Chicago’s ascendance is due more to their unusually weak schedule, letting them face less formidable opponents so far. Their toughest challenges are still on the horizon. So, are they genuinely the top team in the NFC, or just holding their spot temporarily?
Looking at their schedule, one can’t help but wonder how easy the 2025 season could have been for the Bears. Yes, teams play what’s in front of them, and it’s no small feat to win in the NFL, but Chicago’s schedule strength rating this season is -3.0, weaker than all but one other team in the conference, the New England Patriots.
Teams that the Bears have bested this season hold a combined record of 37 wins, 70 losses, and 1 tie, with an average of just 4 wins and 8 losses. They’ve only secured three victories against teams with a .500 or better record, and those were against the Steelers and Eagles, which indeed showcase some improvement. Still, with most of their wins against teams like the Raiders and Giants, it’s hard to take a 9-3 record at face value.
Adding to the challenges for Chicago, key players, including their quarterback, dealt with injuries, making their toughest matchups even more daunting.
The defense, however, tells a different story. While the offense has shown rapid improvement, the Bears’ defensive statistics are quite alarming. They rank 25th in points allowed, 22nd against the pass, and 28th versus the run, all while allowing a concerning number of sacks, clocking in at 23.0 and landing them 26th in the league.
These figures are hard to ignore, especially against the backdrop of such an easy schedule. It’s one thing to struggle defensively against top-tier teams, but quite another to perform this poorly against weaker opponents. Players like Tyler Shaw, JJ McCarthy, and Geno Smith don’t exactly scream “top-tier” competition either, raising questions about their position in the NFC hierarchy.
Currently, turnovers are plaguing the Bears’ defense. They lead the NFL with a +17 turnover differential—impressive, yet this is largely thanks to facing many lesser teams. It’s likely that competition will tighten, making those turnovers harder to come by against stronger rivals.
What do the advanced metrics show?
Basic rankings reveal quite a bit, but even advanced indicators don’t paint a rosy picture when you compare the Bears to other NFL teams.
- 14th in dropback EPA
- 3rd in rush EPA
- 9th overall offensive EPA
- 18th in dropback EPA permitted
- 21st in allowed rush EPA
- 19th in total defensive EPA
- Caleb Williams ranks 27th in overall QB EPA+CPOE
While these stats seem grim—and they largely are—it’s worth noting that few teams excel in all areas according to EPA metrics. Most NFL teams tend to be strong in one area while lacking in another. So, to contextualize, the Bears are doing well offensively, albeit poorly on defense. Their offensive line is decent enough to place them in what’s labeled a Tier 4 position.
Although “Tier 4” doesn’t sound appealing, it’s roughly on par with teams like the Eagles and Cowboys, falling short of the likes of the Lions and Bills.
There’s definitely room for a nuanced discussion about the Bears’ current predicament. They’ve exceeded pre-season expectations, but they aren’t exactly elite by NFL standards, and that’s an acceptable reality.
2025 was supposed to mark the beginning of the Ben Johnson era for the Bears, laying a foundation for future success. They didn’t arrive at this point by becoming one of the NFL’s best teams overnight. Their record might help them sneak into the playoffs, particularly if they win against some average teams, but they need a wake-up call.
Hope isn’t entirely lost yet. In the coming five weeks, they’ll face the Packers twice alongside the Lions and 49ers, with a chance to play the Browns too. Winning at least two of those tough matchups could demonstrate their ability to compete with playoff-level teams and clarify Chicago’s playoff prospects.
However, there’s also a potential nightmare scenario. Despite holding the No. 1 NFC spot, the Bears only have a 76% chance of making the playoffs—lower than any team in a similar situation. If they were to lose all those difficult games, winning against the Browns wouldn’t suffice for postseason advancement. The Lions could easily capitalize and take that spot from them.
Ultimately, time will reveal the truth, but it’s tough to convincingly argue that the Bears rightfully sit at the top of the NFC. Their current standing can be attributed to specific circumstances, and while it’s fair to celebrate their growth, they can’t fully buy into the optimism without some reservations.
