Former President Donald Trump has a 50-48% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, according to a new national Fox News poll. This is a reversal from last month, when Harris had a narrow lead.
However, Harris holds a 6-point lead among voters in seven key battleground states, and both candidates lead among voters in nearby counties (where the 2020 Joe Biden-Trump margin was less than 10 points). are tied at 49% each. Trump's lead in counties where Biden won by at least 10 points (64% to 35%) is greater than Harris's share in counties where Biden won by at least 10 points (64% to 35%) in 2020. The reason is that it is bigger.
This raises the question of whether Democrats can win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. In 2000 and 2016, Republican candidates won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Trump's 2-point lead among likely voters is well within the margin of error. The results were identical among large groups of registered voters. Last month, Harris gained 2 points (50% to 48%) among both prospective and registered voters.
This analysis uses results from registered voters to compare like-for-like trends.
These are Trump's highest numbers since Harris became the nominee in August. The move toward him is largely due to increased support among white voters, who now support him by 10 points, up from 4 points last month and 6 points in August. There were also record highs among voters 65 and older (49%) and college graduates (48%).
At the same time, Harris' support among black voters (67%), college graduates (49%), voters 65 and older (47%), and white college graduates (46%) is the lowest she has been since becoming a candidate. It becomes.
But on the surface, the race remains narrow. In August, Trump led by 1 point, in September, Harris led by 2 points, and now Trump has a 2 point lead.
“Overall, the move toward Trump is subtle, but especially among college-educated voters,” said Chris Anderson, a Democratic pollster who conducts Fox News research with Republican Daron Shaw. “If support for it grows, it could have a significant impact.'' “But for the past three months, the campaign has been moving within the margin of error, and the outcome will likely depend on which side can get voters to the polls more effectively than on persuasion. There will be.”
The 20-point gender gap remains, with men supporting Trump and women supporting Harris.
The good news for Harris is that she's winning over 52% of new voters (those who haven't voted in the last two presidential elections) and 20% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Even among independents, he maintains a double-digit lead over Trump. The race remains close, with each candidate receiving support from more than nine out of 10 voters in their respective parties. On the other hand, nationally, more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats, giving Trump an advantage in this race.
The vice president enjoys a majority of support among Hispanics (52%) and voters under 30 (54%), but FOX News Voter Analysis polling (6 out of 10 in each group) shows that both The numbers also fall short of President Joe Biden's approval rating in 2020.
The good news for Trump is that every issue and personality trait has improved since September. And a majority remember his time in office positively, with 53% appreciating the job he did as president. That's four points higher than he earned during his tenure. 93% of Republicans fully approve, as do 74% of non-MAGA Republicans and 45% of independents.
By comparison, only 40% of voters currently approve of Biden's performance, which is on par with previous lows in November 2023 and July 2022.
A slightly higher number, 43%, approve of the government's response to recent hurricanes, with most Democrats and most Republicans and independents disapproving.
The economy continues to outrank all other issues, with 40% saying it is the most important issue in deciding their presidential choice. Less than half say immigration and abortion are a priority, and far fewer say issues like election integrity, health care, climate change, guns, crime and foreign policy.
Seven out of 10 people view the economy negatively. The 30% who rate the situation positively is up from a low of 17% in 2022 and closer to the 33% who felt good about the economy at the end of Trump's term. Half of Democrats have a positive assessment, while a majority of Republicans and independents have a negative assessment of the state of the economy.
Overall, 44% say they are falling behind financially, 17 percentage points worse than three years ago, when only 27% felt that way. 13% feel they are making progress financially, while 43% feel stable.
Trump is seen as doing a better job of handling the economy than Harris (by 8 points). He also beats her on immigration (+15), crime (+8), and guns (+6). As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, it is notable that President Trump has a 13-point approval rating on Israel and war, up from a 7-point lead in September. He improved his ranking in all questions compared to September, but most by small margins.
More voters trust Harris on abortion (up 14 points), climate change (up 12 points) and health care (up 8 points). Both candidates are roughly evenly rated on taxes (Trump +4), Supreme Court nominations (Trump +1), and election integrity (Harris +3).
“Sometimes elections are simple,” Shaw says. “Three weeks later, just two in five voters say the current government has done a good job, and just one in seven say they are making progress on the fiscal front, so why should the incumbent be replaced?” You might wonder if the president thought he was going to win.”
Democrats and Republicans prioritize different issues, with the biggest difference (28 points) on immigration. There is an 18 point difference on abortion and a 15 point difference on the economy.
About 12% of Democrats think Trump is doing a better job on the economy and 18% feel that way about immigration, while 17% of Republicans trust Harris more on abortion and climate change. are.
Mr. Trump is helped by the fact that more voters say they know more about Mr. Trump's positions on their priorities than Ms. Harris (57% vs. 44%). Seventy-eight percent of Republicans feel they know a lot about President Trump's positions, while 65% of Democrats feel the same way about Harris.
Fewer than half believe that Trump (43%) and Harris (48%) are honest and trustworthy, but Trump's numbers are a career high. Voters are also more likely to see him as a strong leader (55% vs. Harris, 47%) and “the right person for the job” of president (53% vs. 50%). Harris has the advantage in terms of mental fitness to become president (54% to Trump 52%), but Trump holds a personal best here as well.
Mr. Harris is at a disadvantage in several important characteristics. She was seen as good at helping the middle class by 9 points in September, but has now dropped to 4 points. The 5-point advantage on “fighting for people like you” is now down to 2 points, and the 6-point advantage on “protecting individual rights and freedoms” is now tied for candidates. It disappeared because of it.
Voters also have a narrower view of Mr. Trump as someone who will bring about needed change and protect free speech, both traits that helped Ms. Harris win last month.
The campaign continues to focus on Trump rather than Harris, as most of her supporters say they are voting for Trump rather than Harris. Among Harris supporters, two-thirds say their vote is for her, while one-third say it's for Trump. By the way, as of May, nearly half of Biden supporters said they primarily voted against Trump. 80% of Trump supporters say they would vote for him rather than against Harris (18%).
When asked in their own words about the issues and factors that motivated them to vote this year, the top reaction among Harris supporters was hatred of the other candidate, followed by advocacy for democracy and abortion. For Trump supporters, the top two motivations are the economy and immigration, followed by the candidate's characteristics. For men, dislike of other candidates, economics, and characteristics (in that order) are the top motivators, while for women, economics and abortion are tied for the top motivators, followed by candidate characteristics.
Polpuri
- As red and blue states turn shades of purple, it's hard to know how much of the popular vote will signal an Electoral College victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points in the United States, but lost in the electoral vote (77 electoral votes), while Joe Biden gained a 4 point advantage in the popular vote. He won by 74 electoral votes.
- About a third of all voters and a third of women say it is important to their vote that Harris become the first female president. 17% said it was very important, and 80% supported Harris.
- Roughly 3 in 10 voters said they check the news multiple times a day and support Trump by 10 points. At the other end of the spectrum, 1 in 10 say they don't pay attention to the news, and these disinterested voters support Mr. Trump by 16 points. Fifty-seven percent of respondents who check the news regularly, but not all the time, support Ms. Harris by 6 points.
- Most supporters of each candidate are confident in their vote, with two-thirds of Harris and Trump supporters saying they are “very” willing to vote.
The Fox News survey, conducted October 11-14, 2024 and directed by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), included a random sample of voter files from across the country. Includes interviews with a sample of 1,110 registered voters. Respondents either spoke live with an interviewer via landline (129) and mobile phone (719) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (262). Results based on both the full registered voter sample and a subsample of 870 likely voters have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. The sampling error associated with the results between subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can also affect results. Typically, weights are applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight goals include American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Potential voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that depends on past voting history, current election interest, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance, marital status, and more.
