Former President Donald Trump's approval ratings have skyrocketed since September, and he now leads Vice President Kamala Harris 50% to 48% nationally, according to a Fox News poll.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows Trump leading Harris among prospective voters and registered voters, although a Fox News poll in September showed Trump trailing Harris. It turns out. The poll showed Harris with 50% of the vote and Trump with 48% in both groups. Harris' 2-point decline and Trump's 2-point increase amounts to an effective 4-point swing in the former president's direction.
Mr. Trump leads by a wide margin with 29% of registered black voters to Ms. Harris' 67%, but Mr. Trump is catching up among Hispanic voters, with 52% supporting Ms. Harris and 47% supporting Mr. Trump. are. Trump's support among black voters has remained unchanged month-over-month, even as he continues to make inroads with Hispanic voters.
Harris' approval rating among Hispanics has increased by 4 points since September, while her approval rating has fallen by 3 points.
Additionally, there is a significant movement in President Trump's direction among college-educated voters. Harris holds a narrow lead with these voters, 49% to 48%, indicating a seismic shift from recent months.
In August, Harris held a 14-point lead among these voters, 56% to 42%. The gap narrowed slightly in September to 55% to 43% in favor of Harris, but the race became closer in October.
Looking more closely, Trump is pulling away from college-educated whites who lagged far behind in September and August. Harris currently leads Harris among registered voters in this precinct, 51% to 46%.
In August, Ms. Harris held a 56% to 42% advantage among registered white voters with a college degree; in September, Ms. Harris held a 55% to 43% advantage.
But polls also show Harris leading by 6 points in Trump battleground states, 52% to 46%. This trend, in concert with his national lead, completely debunks the conventional wisdom surrounding Trump, who lost the popular vote in 2020 but won the electoral college.
James Carville, a veteran Democratic political strategist, spoke in August about the traditional Trump effect, saying Trump is outperforming polls that typically reveal Trump's failures as Election Day approaches.
“First of all, most people are saying we need to win the popular vote by three points to win the Electoral College,” he told Bill Mahr. “So even if the poll says we're two wins, if the poll is right, you're actually one spot behind.”
The poll, conducted jointly by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, sampled 1,100 registered voters, including 870 potential voters, from October 11 to 14. The margin of error for both samples is ± 3 percentage points.
