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Joe Biden’s campaign is struggling.
Economists’ models give Donald Trump a 74% chance of winning the Electoral College, and Joe Biden a 26% chance.
The odds of former President Trump returning to the White House are on the rise, while President Biden’s chances of reelection are falling sharply as the presumptive Democratic nominee faces intense scrutiny over his ability to serve as commander in chief for another term.
As of Monday, economists’ models showed Trump had roughly a three-in-fourths (74%) chance of winning the Electoral College in 2024, compared with a one-in-fourth (26%) chance for Biden.
The model projects that Trump will receive 310 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, to Biden’s 228. When the two candidates first faced off in 2020, Biden won the presidential election with 306 votes to Trump’s 232.
Since Biden’s dismal performance in the June 27 debate, Trump’s chances of winning have increased by three points and Biden’s chances of winning have fallen by the same number, but Trump has maintained a commanding lead in the forecasts for months. But the models show that Trump’s chances of winning began to rise steadily in early June while Biden’s chances of winning have plummeted.
Many Democrats had hoped that Joe Biden would not run for reelection given his low approval ratings.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, said Washington insiders have expressed hope that bad poll results will prompt Biden to announce he is dropping out of the race.
“Insiders I spoke to over the weekend expected a ‘flood’ of Democratic defections by Monday,” Walter said. “As of Tuesday morning, defections have been minimal. Still, many anxious lower-tier Democrats and donors are hoping that the Biden campaign, faced with worsening poll numbers and a fiercely hostile press corps, will understand the gravity of the situation and gracefully announce its withdrawal from the race. As of this writing, that seems unlikely.”
“While we can’t ignore the uncertainty of the moment, we can make a calm assessment of where we are and where we might be going,” Walter added.
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