This will be one of the most important speeches Donald Trump has ever given.
President Trump’s acceptance speech Republican Convention Tens of millions, maybe more, will watch next week’s broadcast, giving the former president a chance to set himself up for the election. A home run could extend his lead to near-insurmountable proportions. A mistake could cost him his presidency, or even his chances of winning. money And his freedom.
With the stakes higher than ever, can Trump live up to expectations? He will need to set aside his worst instincts, ditch his rally persona and deliver a direct, disciplined speech. problemTrump Can’t reach 50 percent National and battleground state polls have produced results that should sound alarm bells for his campaign.
Trump formally challenges Biden At least two more debates (If Biden is still in the race.) This is the easiest call for the Trump campaign: Biden can’t avoid them, and there’s no way he can stay together while both campaigns are ongoing.
The most important thing for the Trump camp is that as the Republican front-runner, Trump’s real base of support is extremely small. The majority of Republicans are in Trump’s camp, and the majority of Democrats hate him. What Trump is really talking to are undecided and passive voters – people who don’t like either candidate, but whose aversion leads them to vote for what they perceive as the lesser of two evils. Without these soft voters, Trump couldn’t win (nor could Biden or Kamala Harris).
Both Trump and Biden are ahead in the polls. Real Clear Politics His approval rating is just 42%. Voting Test That’s a 5-point lead. But Trump can’t win on approval ratings alone. YouGov The benchmarks show just how weak his key bases are: Trump’s approval rating is 41 percent overall, but just 35 percent among independents. He’s down 17 points among Hispanics, and down 21 points among women.
Trump has closed the “honesty gap” with Biden, but not through his own efforts. Only 31% of voters still see Trump as honest, while 55% see him as dishonest. That’s a 21-point gap among Hispanics and a 29-point gap among women. Trump is down 36 points among independents. Bill Clinton’s Domain.
It’s clear that key voters remain repelled by Trump, his rhetoric and the chaos that surrounds him.
Trump last month DiscussionThe less he talked, the better he did. When he began to whine bitterly about the 2020 election and unleash Trump’s trademark hyperbole, he lost his base of support. In the face of Biden’s enormous collapse, he lost the majority. Still not approved Trump’s performance.
That means Trump can’t treat the convention speech like a rally. He can’t pander to the crowd. He must stop using his most inflammatory rhetoric and attacks that could work against Biden but have the potential to boomerang back at him. If Harris becomes the nominee.
In other words, “Stolen Election” Whining. No Golf ChallengeNot an exaggeration to ridicule Burglars and robbers too. Cognitive testing This rhetoric can only hurt Biden, and if Harris becomes the nominee, she will throw it in his face, sticking to the facts about Biden, asking what he’ll be like when he’s 84 or 85, and accusing him of helping to cover up Biden’s troubles.
If Trump can control his instincts and deliver a calm, collected speech, he can reassure independent voters who are somewhat supportive of him and undecided voters who are tired of his chaos. More importantly, Trump can make it safe for voters who are infuriated by Biden but can’t bring themselves to vote for Trump to stay home or cast a protest vote for the candidate they find annoying.
Trump and the Republicans have the same problem. They do nothing but complain about Biden and the Democrats. They do not offer a positive vision for the country or realistic and substantive proposals to solve the country’s problems. It is not enough to just say, “I’m going to make this and that better than they have been.” Trump is content with Biden’s problems. With Harris replaced and the Democrats changing their ways, there is a great opportunity.
In politics, coasting is a losing proposition, and Trump is making that mistake.
There are three issue areas Trump needs to address, and fleshing them out would give him an edge and put Biden and Harris in a bind.
The first is to link immigration to inflation. Biden’s Approval Both problems are bad, and have been for a while. The problem for Trump is that inflation is easier to complain about than to solve. Immigration is probably Trump’s biggest challenge, but Not that important He ranks fourth among both independents and Hispanics. The Trump campaign is making a huge mistake by not connecting these two issues.
What are the effects of millions of illegal immigrants coming into the United States? What about the rising cost of housing? People are being evicted from hotels in the United States. new york Other cities favor illegal immigrants. Housing Inflation Stopping immigration, a serious issue for many Americans, and even deporting those here illegally would be a powerful one-two punch that could unsettle the Biden-Harris ticket.
Taking a stronger stance on the fentanyl and opioid crisis would be another easy decision for Trump. Attention But what have they done other than “get tough” rhetoric? Trump should not only demand that fentanyl be classified as a poison, but also propose that substances laced with fentanyl be prosecuted as attempted murder. It is incomprehensible that House Republicans have not yet passed such a bill.
Trump shouldn’t stop there. What is the real difference between drug cartels flooding America with toxic drugs and terrorists plotting mass murder? Why are foreign drug cartels treated like ordinary criminals? It just doesn’t make sense. Trump should demand that these malign groups be classified as enemy combatants and subject to military tribunals and lethal interdiction. His promise to send fentanyl smugglers to Guantanamo Bay will surely be a success.
Finally, Trump needs to end his friendship with Vladimir Putin. Unwilling to force condemnation Putin’s relationship with Russians is one of the most puzzling things about him — an incredible blind spot for someone who is supposed to be attuned to polls and public sentiment.
YouGov Benchmarks for May 21stPutin’s approval rating among Americans is 8 percent favorable and 79 percent unfavorable. Among Republicans, it’s down 11 percentage points to 79 percent. Seniors (those over 65) are Putin’s least favorable demographic, with 3 percent favorable and 93 percent unfavorable. And seniors vote. If Trump doesn’t get their approval, he will lose.
The situation in Russia is just as bad as that of Putin, with only 7% of Americans considering Russia a “friend” or “ally” and 78% viewing it as an “unfriendly” or “enemy.”
Trump supporters are even more hostile. Republicans and conservatives have a negative view of Russia at 80 percent and 82 percent, respectively. The worst part of this demographic? Seniors. They have a 93 percent negative view of Russia and 0 percent positive. I’ve seen hundreds of polls and I’ve never seen a 0 percent on anything.
Taking a tough stance on Russia doesn’t give anyone a blank check, but it removes a major attack point for Democrats and unnecessarily hurts Trump’s approval ratings. Russia and Putin’s approval ratings are down more than 70 points. Not taking a clear and aggressive stance on a 70-point issue is the most serious political blunder you can make.
Keith NortonHe is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former political campaign consultant in Pennsylvania.
