With the first week of the NFL season behind us, we are starting to learn more about the state of the league in 2024.
Each week in this column I will analyze the futures bets I am making ahead of the upcoming week's matches.
This week it's the Seahawks, I like them more than Ryan Dunleavy, and my colleagues at the Post still have Seattle ranked 21st in their Week 2 power rankings.
Best NFL Futures Bets for Week 2
Before the season started, I wrote about teams to buy and sell to make the playoffs, and the Seahawks were my biggest buy with almost 2-to-1 odds, but an opening week win erased those numbers.
But I still see value in positive odds, and my faith in this team has grown despite a dismal performance at home against the Broncos in Week 1.
After trailing at halftime, the Seahawks needed some time to get going on both defense and offense, which wasn't surprising considering the team's new coaching staff opted to use starters sparingly in the preseason.
But they picked up steam in the second half and first-year head coach Mike McDonald was very impressed with their defense.
Sure, Seattle was facing a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) making his first start on the road, but the Seahawks have a loaded young defensive line that showed off some talent in Week 1.
Devon Witherspoon and Tarik Uhlen might be the best young cornerback duo in the league, Julian Love was PFF's highest-graded safety in Week 1, rookie Byron Murphy II is a nuisance for opposing teams on the defensive line, and Boye Maffe recorded nine pressures against Denver and is primed to have a breakout season.
My biggest concern with the Seahawks is their offensive line, which ranked 29th in pass block win percentage in Week 1. Charles Cross continues to develop as their franchise left tackle, but the rest of the group still has room to improve.
Finally, the return of Abraham Lucas should help, as well as offensive line coach Scott Huff, who led a Washington line that was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award last year.
Huff worked under Ryan Grubb in Washington, whose offense utilized motion 78.9 percent of the time in Week 1, up from 53.2 percent in 2023 and the highest usage rate in a game with Geno Smith since he became the starter in 2021.
The diversification of the rushing attack paid off, with running back Kenneth Walker III taking control of the game in the second half.
I also liked how aggressive McDonald was in this game, going for two points in the second quarter and telling Grubb to go for it late in the game despite only having a six-point lead.
Seattle is an analytics-driven organization, and calculated risk has made a big difference over the course of the season compared to other coaches, including Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, whose conservative play-calling and decision-making has hurt the team.
The NFC competition took a hit this week.
In the NFC West, the Rams will be without star receiver Puka Nacua for at least a few games and are dealing with a slew of injuries in the secondary and on the offensive line.
Meanwhile, with Green Bay missing Jordan Love for the time being, Atlanta's Kirk Cousins struggling in his Week 1 debut and Tampa Bay battling some significant injuries, Seattle's path to at least a wild-card berth is widening.
Do you bet on the NFL?
After Week 1, FTN projects the Seahawks to have a 63.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, and their current +110 odds give an implied probability of 47.6 percent, suggesting there is clear value in the current numbers.
The Seahawks are also rated at +500 (estimated probability 16.7%) to win the NFC West, and FTN gives the Seahawks a 26.2% chance of winning the division.
I would recommend betting a full unit on the +110 odds that the Seahawks will make the playoffs and 0.25 units on the +500 odds that the Seahawks will win the division.
Best bets for the NFL future
- Seahawks make the playoffs (+110, DraftKings)
- Seahawks to win NFC West (+500, FanDuel)
