Three major matchups headline an early-season college basketball Tuesday
A lot of fans wait until February or March to tune in to college basketball. I think they miss some good stuff. The early-season schedule is often packed with big games, thanks to events such as the Champions Classic and the ACC/SEC Challenge.
Tuesday brings three Top 25 matchups, including No. 5 Michigan State against No. 2 Duke at Chicago’s United Center in the State Farm Champions Classic. It’s a strong slate for this point in the season.
Michigan State vs. Duke
Duke is favored by 7.5 points, with the total set at 145.5. The game tips off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Tom Izzo has been coaching long enough that people can start treating his accomplishments as routine. I wouldn’t. He’s among the best at getting a lot out of his teams, and this season he has a top-level point guard to help him do it.
Michigan State finished 27-8 last season and made the Sweet 16. The Spartans return Jeremy Fears Jr., who averaged 15.2 points and led the country with 9.4 assists per game. Forward Coen Carr is back, too, after putting up 12 points and 5.4 rebounds a night.
The bigger question is inside. Izzo must replace starting big men Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, and that’s not a small thing against a team with Duke’s size.
The Blue Devils went 35-3 last season before their run ended in the Elite Eight on a last-second shot by UConn’s Braylon Mullins. Duke lost its two leading scorers, Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans, to the NBA. That would be a major loss for most programs. At Duke, it can also be the opening for someone new to become a star.
Coach Jon Scheyer brings back four of his six top scorers: Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr and Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer. Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell adds another option in the backcourt. Ngongba recently scored 28 against Coastal Carolina, while Boozer recorded 12 assists.
The preseason analytics are high on Duke. KenPom and TeamRankings both had the Blue Devils at No. 1 in their Nov. 1 ratings. Michigan State was eighth in both, so the Spartans shouldn’t be overlooked.
A lot may come down to whether Fears can create quality looks against Duke’s defense and whether Michigan State’s reworked frontcourt can cope with the Blue Devils’ size. Fears should help the Spartans stay organized, but this is a substantial step up from their season-opening games against Quinnipiac and Toledo.
One detail that complicates my praise of Izzo: he’s 3-15 against Duke. The Blue Devils, apparently, have not been especially impressed.
Texas Tech vs. Illinois
Illinois is favored by 2.5 points, and the total is 166.5. Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET on Peacock.
I’m a big believer in Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland. He may be the most underrated coach in the country. The Red Raiders have reached the NCAA Tournament in each of his first three seasons, including an Elite Eight run in 2025. When McCasland took over in 2023, Texas Tech was coming off a 16-16 campaign, and he got the program back to the tournament right away.
Last season, the Red Raiders went 23-11 and lost to Alabama in the second round. They played that tournament without star forward JT Toppin, who tore his ACL in February. Toppin is back with the team but still recovering, and he has said he hopes to return by the end of December.
Texas Tech also lost point guard Christian Anderson to the NBA after he averaged 18.5 points and 7.4 assists. That’s a lot of production to replace, especially while the team waits for its best big man to get healthy.
McCasland does have other pieces. Sharpshooter Donovan Atwell returns after making 130 three-pointers last season, and Darrion Williams is back after a year at NC State. He left Texas Tech and then came back, which feels like a pretty good illustration of how unusual college basketball’s transfer era can be.
The new backcourt includes Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. They averaged more than 20 points per game last season at Hofstra and UNLV, respectively. Gibbs-Lawhorn previously played two seasons at Illinois, so he’ll know a few people on the other side.
Illinois is coming off a 28-9 season and its first Final Four appearance since 2005. Coach Brad Underwood has continued to recruit heavily overseas, and several international players were important to last year’s run. Underwood described the group as especially enjoyable to coach, in part because the players brought so much energy and competitiveness to practice.
David Mirkovic and brothers Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic are among the returnees. Andrej Stojakovic is back as well, giving the Illini useful experience from their tournament run. Guards Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell have departed, though, leaving key roles to fill. Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks and freshman Quentin Coleman could provide more scoring from the backcourt.
Both KenPom and TeamRankings placed Illinois fourth in their preseason ratings. The expectations make sense, though the Illini won’t be at full strength: Mirkovic is out after foot surgery and an appendectomy, while forward Jake Davis is sidelined with a shoulder injury.
Illinois has scored 232 points across its first two games. That’s not a typo, even if FDU and Penn might prefer it were. Now the Illini head to Lubbock, where Texas Tech has won 48 straight nonconference games at home.
Kansas vs. Kentucky
Kansas is favored by 4.5 points, with the total at 158.5. The game starts at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
This is the matchup that brings the pollsters-versus-computers debate back around. Kansas opened the season at No. 17 in the AP Poll, but KenPom ranked the Jayhawks fifth and TeamRankings had them sixth. The computers are considerably more optimistic than the voters this time around.
Neither team had the March it wanted last season. Kansas finished 24-11, while Kentucky went 22-14, and both were knocked out in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. For programs with their histories, those endings were disappointing, to put it mildly.
Kansas lost Darryn Peterson to the NBA and big man Flory Bidunga to Louisville. Bill Self has a highly regarded freshman coming in, though: Tyran Stokes, the nation’s top recruit. Returning wing Tre White brings experience and scoring, while Purdue transfer Trey Kaufman-Renn gives the Jayhawks a proven interior presence after averaging 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds last season.
There’s also a late problem for Kansas. Guard Melvin Council Jr. broke his foot in practice Monday and will miss the game. He averaged 12.7 points and 5.1 assists last season, so the Jayhawks lose an experienced playmaker just before a major test. Freshman Taylen Kinney and Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr. may need to take on more responsibility. That’s a tough introduction: Kentucky, a national TV audience and a game at the United Center.
Kentucky has had plenty of roster turnover of its own. Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen are gone, while center Malachi Moreno and wing Kam Williams are among the returning players. Coach Mark Pope added Washington guard Zoom Diallo and Furman’s Alex Wilkins. Another name to keep in mind is Milan Momcilovic.
The Iowa State transfer made 136 three-pointers last season and hit 48.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Nearly half, in the Big 12. He got Kentucky fans’ attention in the opener against Manhattan, making six threes and scoring 24 points.
Kentucky’s shooting gives it a real chance, particularly with Kansas adjusting to Council’s absence. The Wildcats do need to defend better, though, after allowing James Madison to score 80 points on Friday. Stokes and Kaufman-Renn offer a different kind of challenge, and Kansas should have chances to attack in the paint.
The questions I’ll be watching are how Kansas manages without its veteran guard and whether Kentucky can handle a team capable of doing damage inside. Maybe neither issue decides the game on its own, but they feel important.
If you’re someone who waits until March to start watching college basketball, Tuesday is a decent reminder that the season has plenty to offer before then.
