The Sahel region has become a focal point of deepening polarization between pro-Western “moderate” states and those seeking independence from neo-colonial influences and turning instead to non-African powers such as Russia. On July 6, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announcedAssociation of Sahel States (AES)A coalition of military juntas that reject pressure from the West, especially the United States.Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The timing of the AES announcement was ECOWAS Summit in NigeriaThis is no coincidence. It has highlighted the growing fragmentation of West Africa. For the United States and the EU, this development is a sign of complex geopolitical changes that call into question their stability and influence in the Sahel region. These countries, now under military rule after a coup that ousted a pro-Western government, want to chart a new course.
The AES emerged as a defense pact, not just a coalition, signaling that the era of dependency on the West was rapidly coming to an end. Withdraw from G5 Sahel in 2022 The omen of this collapse was Burkina Faso and Niger to follow in 2023.
Creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) This is a response to dissatisfaction by Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger over the treatment they have received from the African Union and ECOWAS. The countries claim that both organisations have not provided enough support in the fight against the jihadist insurgency. But more pressing is their criticism of ECOWAS, which they claim has been unfairly influenced by foreign countries, particularly France. They argue that sanctions imposed by these organisations have only exacerbated the suffering of their people.
The U.S. military has completed its mission.The withdrawal from the base in Niger's capital, Niamey, marks an important step as Washington continues to rebalance its presence in West Africa.
The withdrawal marks a broader Western retreat in West Africa, triggered by military coups that have strained relations between the breakaway countries and the West. It also signals broader changes in the region, where anti-Western sentiment and alliances with non-Western countries, especially Russia, are taking root. As the Sahel pivots toward closer ties with Russia, the United States is seriously reconsidering its involvement in the region, which has been a key base for fighting conflicts. Al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS)-related groups.
Growing hostility towards former colonial powers, especially France, has already French troops to withdraw completely from Mali in 2022and Later from Niger Burkina Faso also joined in. The U.S. withdrawal marks a major shift in the geopolitical landscape as alliances in the region are being rebuilt, raising questions about the future of counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel.
Will the AES deliver on its promise of independence or will it crumble under the weight of its own ambitions? The newly formed alliance has been a vocal critic of French influence in the region andG5 Sahel in 2023,A security framework that once seemed promising.
So far, the alliance's creation has met with mixed reactions. Some see it as a bold step towards greater autonomy, while others are skeptical of its long-term stability. The AES is not just a defense pact but a broader attempt to reshape regional dynamics. The alliance's plans include the creation of a regional bank and a stabilization fund aimed at stimulating economic growth and attracting foreign investment. The move reflects member states' desire for self-reliance and positions the AES as an alternative to traditional frameworks.
The creation of the AES poses significant challenges for the Sahel region of West Africa, which is already plagued by instability, poverty and environmental degradation. The coalition faces major challenges including its landlocked geography and the economic uncertainty caused by Brexit. West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).
Economically, the country's withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) could result in significant isolation. ECOWAS plays a key role in regional trade and financial integration, and withdrawing from the community risks losing access to larger markets and facing trade barriers. This economic isolation could be further exacerbated by sanctions and trade embargoes imposed by neighboring countries and international organizations that do not recognize the union's non-traditional composition and military rule.
Once the linchpin of West African cooperation, ECOWAS has come under scrutiny for its relevance, especially after the departure of these three countries. The AES is positioning itself as an alternative to existing frameworks, and the future of the region may depend on whether the coalition can achieve results that others have failed to achieve.
The alliancePromising strategic independence and economic synergyBut their ability to improve living standards remains unclear: military regimes in these countries have had ample time to initiate reforms that have yet to deliver tangible benefits to their people.
Mali in particular is a case in point. Its leaders have struggled to meet the socio-economic expectations of their people. This situation raises deeper questions: are these governments using external challenges as an excuse for their own shortcomings, or are they making serious attempts to break free from the constraints imposed by powerful regional and international actors? The success of a federation will depend not only on its ability to foster internal cohesion, but also on its ability to manage a complex web of geopolitical pressures.This time from Moscow.
Russia is now tightening its grip on the Sahel region.Russia is looking to new alliances across the region while also strengthening its influence in several major countries. This ambitious strategy sets the stage for potential conflict with other world powers as Moscow seeks to expand its influence. The next front in this geopolitical battle is likely to beWest African coastal countriesThe stakes are high and the competition is fierce. In this unfolding drama, the Sahel is not just a theatre of conflict but a crucial chessboard in a broader struggle for influence.
ECOWAS has sought to mend this growing divide and reunite the three countries, Appointment of Senegal's new President, Bashir Diomae Faye Burkina Faso as an intermediaryFaso President Ibrahim TraoreHe has been relentless in his criticism: he has called the ECOWAS leadership “house slaves” and accused them of prioritizing Western economic interests over the well-being of their own people.
For the United States, this new geopolitical situation in the Sahel highlights the complex and changing dynamics of the region, where old alliances are dissolving and new ones are emerging in opposition to traditional Western influence.
Imran Khalid is a medical doctor and holds a Master's degree in International Relations.
