After President Trump secured a second term, there was a noticeable shift among immigrants who began to retreat. His subsequent call for increased military presence in various cities to address crime seemed to send a clear signal, particularly to undocumented immigrants with criminal backgrounds.
According to data from January and a Brookings report released that same month, the U.S. actually saw a decline in net immigration in 2025. Even though ICE ramped up its activities during 2025 and 2026, the report indicated that the primary cause of the decrease stemmed from reduced immigration levels rather than ICE’s actions.
In a recent government funding bill that President Trump signed to resolve a shutdown, there was a restoration of funds for essential services including housing, education, labor, health care, and defense through the end of the fiscal year on September 30. However, funding for the Department of Homeland Security is set to continue for only a brief period of 10 days, ending on February 13. This limited timeframe could give Congress a chance to push for cuts to the Department, allowing for potentially stricter immigration regulations, as noted in the report.
Possible Continued Decline Until 2026
The Brookings study estimates that annual net inflows could be between -295,000 and -10,000. It also suggests that net migration may continue to be negative in 2026, although there’s a lot of uncertainty regarding policy.
Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the U.S. population experienced only a modest increase of 1.8 million, or about 0.5%, which is quite a slowdown compared to previous growth rates.
According to Christine Hartley, assistant director for estimates and forecasting at the Census Bureau, the consistency in birth and death rates contrasts sharply with the significant drop in net international migration—the main factor contributing to the current slow growth.
In various locations across the U.S., many migrant shelters are now either empty or nearing emptiness due to a shortage of immigrants. El Paso, Texas is a case in point, where numerous shelters have shut down because of funding cuts and legal issues.
Empty Shelters in El Paso as Border Patrol Steps Up
Larry Floyd from the El Paso Baptist Association noted that Border Patrol is currently stopping around 5,000 crossings each day, leading to closures of many shelters, with his being among the last to remain open.
“If we’re planning to accept more immigrants, we can’t ignore the realities at hand,” he remarked.
El Paso used to run 14 shelters, but now only five evacuation centers are operational.
Sami DiPasquale, executive director of Avara House, mentioned that while their primary focus has been on “supporting real and fundamental humanitarian needs,” their mission has broadened to include a wider array of services.
This faith-based organization collaborates with shelters in both the U.S. and Mexico. DiPasquale pointed out that some newcomers arrive with significant trauma, emphasizing the need for additional funding to assist in their recovery.
With cuts to funding for shelters and legal aid from the Trump administration, alternative sources for support will need to be secured.
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First publication date is February 4, 2026.
