A number of candidates who have questioned the results of previous elections emerged victorious in Tuesday night’s Arizona primary, the latest sign of Donald Trump’s deepening influence over the Republican Party in the Grand Canyon State.
In the most significant election of the night, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kali Lake were formally elected as their parties’ Senate candidates.
But voters also weighed in on several other contentious primaries, including the one for the seat being vacated by Gallego and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.). Primary election night also offered some hints about what voters can expect in November.
Here are five early lessons from the Arizona primary.
A triumphant night for election deniers
Tuesday night was definitely a good night for election deniers.
Lake, who refuses to concede defeat in the 2022 election, won the Republican primary. Abe Hamadeh, a former attorney general candidate running in the Republican primary for the 8th Congressional District, has called the 2020 election a “rigged election” and claimed Trump won the state that year. At the time of publication, Hamadeh was leading his Republican rival and another Trump ally, 30 percentage points to 23 percentage points.
Mark Finchem, a former state legislator and former candidate for Secretary of State, who has made unfounded claims about the 2020 election.He was leading his Republican rival for the upcoming term.45 percent to 37 percent, with 60 percent of the estimated votes reported as of Wednesday morning.
And in one of the biggest surprises of the night, Maricopa County Recorder Steven Richer, the top elections official who has refuted false allegations of fraud about the election, was trailing one of the hardline Republican primary candidates.
Overall, the night highlighted just how ingrained election denialism is among Arizona’s Republican base.
Highly anticipated Senate elections decided
Gallego and Lake were both considered surefire contenders to win and were in general election mode long before the primary took place.
On Tuesday night, their matchup became official.
Lake’s primary rival was Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, but the Decision Desk quickly declared her the winner on Tuesday.
Ahead of the highly anticipated head-to-head matchup, the Senate Democrats’ campaign quickly released new digital ads targeting Lake. Senate Democrats’ campaign chairman, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), called the former local news anchor a “power-hungry liar” while praising Gallego as a “proven fighter who fights for our state’s families and priorities.”
Meanwhile, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana), chairman of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, congratulated Lake on his primary victory and called Gallego “one of the most radical Democrats in the country.”
In Arizona, DDHQ polls show Gallego leading Lake, 47% to 43%, and the nonpartisan election forecasting site Cook Political Report rates the district as “Democrat-leaning.”
Potential Warning Signs in the Lake
Lake quickly won the Republican nomination, but Lamb also won a significant number of votes in the Republican primary.
With 63% of the estimated votes reported as of early Wednesday morning, Lake had 53% of the vote to Lamb’s 41%, raising questions about whether the sheriff’s supporters will ultimately migrate to her in November.
Lake has long been a divisive figure in the Republican Party, and after isolating Republican skeptics and McCain allies during her last run for Arizona governor, she is now seeking to win them over.
But the former local news anchor is in many ways running as the same conservative firebrand she was when she ran in the 2022 election, and some of her skeptics are not convinced by her candidacy.
Whether that will work against her in the November election remains to be seen, but Tuesday’s split vote count suggests she may need to work harder to appeal to some Republicans.
Masters in danger of losing again
Masters first came to national attention as a candidate backed by conservative entrepreneur Peter Thiel in the 2022 Arizona Senate election, which he ultimately lost to Democrat Mark Kelly, who is currently being considered as Kamala Harris’ running mate.
Masters appeared on the brink of suffering another defeat Tuesday night, this time to Hamade in the Republican primary for Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.
Masters, a former Senate candidate, received a last-minute endorsement from President Trump, who also endorsed Masters’ opponent, Hamadeh, saying they were equally strong candidates.
Other Republicans running to replace Lesko on the GOP ticket include Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma and former Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.).
Arizona’s vote count is slow
Tuesday night also underscored an important point that will have relevance in November: It’s taking a long time to count ballots in Arizona.
As of early Wednesday morning, results from many races were still pending.
Part of this is likely due to a newly enacted law that changes how mail-in ballots are verified, which has caused confusion among some officials about how they should be tracked. According to the Arizona Mirror.
Tuesday’s slow counting of votes offers a hint of what may happen in November, with control of the White House or the Senate hanging in the balance in Arizona, where it could take days for the election’s outcome to be known.
