Dr. Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, gave his final verdict on the 2024 election on Thursday.
In the video posted The New York TimesLichtman predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5 and keep the White House in Democratic hands.
Mr. Lichtman has become a well-known and controversial figure, deploying his so-called “Keys to the White House” every four years, a set of 13 categories that evaluates the prospects of each major party's nominee.
According to the professor, Harris is ahead in eight “key” areas to Trump's three, but in a video on Thursday, Lichtman emphasized, “The outcome is in your hands, so go vote.”
Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, but his claim is based on some logic.
In 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win the presidency, even though he won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
Nearly two decades later, Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would defeat Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, even though the Republican candidate lost the popular vote.
Some critics have Post riders Lars Emerson and Michael Rovito Lichtman's claim to fame is that his winning streak ended in either 2000 or 2016, depending on whether you believe “Keyes” predicts the popular vote or the Electoral College.
The 13 “keys” include:
- Whether the incumbent president's party gained seats in the House of Representatives during the midterm elections (Trump)
- Whether the incumbent will seek reelection (Trump)
- Whether the White House party will hold a primary (Harris)
- Whether there will be a third contestant (Harris)
- Short-term economic conditions (Harris)
- Long-term economic situation (Harris)
- Whether the incumbent president's party has coordinated national policy (Harris)
- Do you have social anxiety? (Harris)
- Whether the president faced a major scandal (Harris)
- Charisma of the challenger (Harris)
- The charisma of the incumbent (Trump)
- Have there been any major foreign policy failures? (N/A)
- Whether the current president has had success in foreign affairs (N/A)
Lichtman, 77, made the dubious claim that President Biden has not suffered any major scandals during his administration because Biden's age and concerns about his scandal-scarred son, Hunter, have not sparked significant partisan divisions.
“Foreign policy is hard, and these keys could be reversed,” Lichtman explained in a Times video. “The Biden administration is deeply involved in the Gaza war, a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys were wrong, that would mean there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to retake the White House.”
Lichtman, a Democrat, had warned his party after his disastrous June 27 debate with Trump that it could be a “tragic mistake” to remove Biden from the running roster because of the incumbent's influence over the 13 keys.
According to the latest multi-candidate poll, Harris has a 2.4 percentage point advantage over Trump nationally. RealClearPolitics CountNate Silver's Most Recent predictions Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning through the Electoral College.
Trump and Harris are scheduled to face off in a debate hosted by ABC News in Philadelphia on September 10.
Despite the uncertainty and turmoil of the 2024 election cycle, Lichtman remains firm in his predictions, saying the “keys will undoubtedly work. They are the immutable North Star of political forecasting.”
