Stefanik Holds Narrow Lead Over Hochul in Gubernatorial Polling
A new independent study indicates that Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) holds a slight edge over Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul in the likely 2026 gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, Zoran Mamdani, a New York City Councilmember, is leading significantly in the upcoming mayoral election.
The data from the Manhattan Institute shows Stefanik leading Hochul 43% to 42% among registered voters across the state. It’s a pretty close call, but this statistical tie still gives Stefanik a narrow advantage. The poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters in New York City and 300 registered voters statewide from October 22 to 26, also reveals that Stefanik is ahead of Hochul’s lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, by six points, at 43% to 37%.
In the mayoral race, Mamdani has garnered 43% support, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo at 28%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 19%. Interestingly, 8% of voters remain undecided. If we look past the undecided crowd, Mamdani’s support climbs to 46%, giving him a 15-point lead over Cuomo and 24 points over Sliwa.
The Manhattan Institute noted that with portions of the electorate opposing Mamdani divided, the Socialist Party might have enough backing to win a simple majority. They mentioned that such a circumstance hasn’t occurred in New York City since John Lindsay’s election back in 1969. Notably, while Mamdani enjoys strong support from younger and urban voters, many New Yorkers have reservations about his key policy positions.
Polling indicates that a significant majority—about 60%—believe that fare evasion should be tightened up to curb crime, with only 30% considering it “mostly harmless.” Also, 64% of respondents expressed support for expanding gifted education programs in public schools, while 58% opposed the idea of making busing completely free. Additionally, 60% were in favor of repealing New York City’s 2019 bail reform and reverting to the earlier system.
When it comes to economic policy, the results showcased broader concerns among voters. Outside of New York City, half of those surveyed opposed increasing the corporate tax rate to fund new social programs, whereas 41% supported it.
Following the poll announcement, Team Elise celebrated, emphasizing Stefanik’s unusual strength. They highlighted how polling among registered Democratic voters in Democratic-leaning states shows Stefanik leading Hochul. It’s notable because this scenario is unprecedented—having a Republican candidate polling ahead of an incumbent Democratic governor.
Breslin noted that Hochul and her administration have let New Yorkers down, mentioning issues like high taxes and rising costs. Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox described the results as a striking revelation, showing Stefanik as a frontrunner against Hochul even before officially declaring her candidacy. He pointed out the challenges New Yorkers face under Hochul’s leadership, suggesting that people are eager for change.
Previously, Mamdani faced criticism from Hochul, particularly when a remark from a Mamdani supporter drew attention to the crowd’s chants of “tax the rich.” Mamdani has proposed initiatives like city-operated grocery stores and a free bus plan, which have faced skepticism and were recently denounced by Hochul.
Stefanik has made a name for herself in Congress by addressing anti-Semitism and higher education issues. Recently, she announced her upcoming book titled *Poisoned Ivy: An Internal Report on Academic and Moral Corruption at America’s Elite Universities*, and she is also focused on expanding Republican initiatives leading up to the 2026 midterm elections.
