Tallinn, Estonia – Senior diplomats from Estonia think that Russia’s conflict with Ukraine is really just a piece of a larger puzzle.
“This isn’t solely about Europe. I believe [Russian President Vladimir] Putin views the U.S. as his long-standing rival,” Foreign Minister Margus Tsakna shared in an exclusive chat with Fox News in Tallinn.
“He aspires to recreate the Soviet Empire, and Ukraine is merely a stage in that pursuit,” he remarked.
Reflecting on a tense period from nine years ago, Tsakna, who served as Estonia’s defense minister, recalled seeing 120,000 Russian troops poised to invade in a mere 48 hours.
“Now those soldiers? They’ve been sent off to Ukraine, many of them lost,” Tsakna stated during a Wednesday briefing at the Foreign Ministry.
“Honestly, I don’t foresee a large-scale military offensive against NATO, considering Russia’s current weaknesses,” Tsakna continued. “Their economy isn’t strong, but they’re certainly gearing up for something.”
Estonia is not taking any chances, though.
To deter possible aggressions on NATO’s eastern front, Estonia recently declared it would allocate over 5% of its GDP toward defense in the upcoming year.
On Wednesday, Estonia welcomed the arrival of six U.S.-made Himars rocket systems, powerful tools previously used in Ukraine for hitting targets as far away as 186 miles.
“As an Estonian, I’ve set a principle: if the U.S. invests a dollar, I add ten,” Tsakna explained. “It helps bolster our capacity.”
Recently, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Poland decided to opt out of the Ottawa Convention, which bans anti-personnel land mines. This decision comes as Russia, not a signatory to the treaty, has laid mines in around 20% of the territories it controls in Ukraine.
Estonia, a small nation of 1.3 million people, significantly larger than New Jersey, shares a 214-mile border with Russia.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine over three years ago, Estonia has ceased all energy imports from Russia, now sourcing 80% of its natural gas from the U.S.
In contrast, the European Union, which includes Estonia, has only reduced its Russian energy imports by about 60%. Data from the Kiel Institute indicated that last year, the EU spent more on Russian oil and gas than it did on aid for Ukraine.
Interestingly, Tsakna noted, “Russia is leveraging religious sentiments for its political agenda.”
He also dismissed Russia’s proposed three-day ceasefire over the recent World War II victory observances, saying, “I don’t think it’s significant.”
Since late 2023, nearly 12 submarine cables have been severed in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland, with Russia under suspicion, although Tsakna mentioned, “It’s hard to pinpoint precisely.” Reports indicate that over 14 individuals connected to Russia’s “shadow fleet” have been arrested, and there are suspicions regarding Chinese involvement in at least one sabotage incident.
NATO has stationed warships off Estonia since January, with reports confirming that no cables have been cut since then.
When questioned about the possibility of a ceasefire and a resolution to tensions in Ukraine, Tsakna offered a cautious outlook.
“President Trump has expressed his desire for peace in Ukraine. People generally want peace, but Putin, I believe, doesn’t share that sentiment.”
Tsakna does not foresee Putin using nuclear arms, labeling such an act as “political suicide.”
“He is certainly ruthless, but it seems we in the West often appear too weak,” he added. “Putin thrives on our fears.”
