Key highlights:
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Ethereum could see a potential 25% drop towards $1,600 after failing to break past several years’ worth of technical resistance.
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Whales have shifted over $237 million in ETH to exchanges and have been tracking Binance’s ETH inflows for five consecutive days.
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Data indicates that large ETH holders are redistributing or selling off their assets, which heightens bearish sentiment.
Ethereum’s token, Ether (ETH), appears to be under pressure after dropping below essential multi-year support levels. It looks like major whales are offloading substantial amounts of ETH, potentially worth hundreds of millions.
Technical analysis suggests an ETH target of $1,600
The two-week chart shows that Ether has fallen beneath the symmetrical triangular trendlines that remained steady since mid-2022.
In March, the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) offered a brief rebound towards $1,600, yet that recovery halted upon reaching the 50-period EMA at approximately $2,545.
The 50-period EMA aligns with the triangle’s low trendline, creating a confluence of resistance that ETH bulls have struggled to surpass in recent months, including June.
Additional signs of bearish pressure include Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI), which sits below a multi-year downward trendline.
Even with recent price recoveries, the RSI hasn’t managed to overcome the resistance from the trendline, which limits bullish momentum and underscores continued downside risk.
ETH may face a drop back to the 200 EMA around $1,600, marking a potential decline of 25% from its current price.
Whale wallets indicate a stagnant recovery
On-chain data for Ethereum highlights the possibility of further price declines in the weeks ahead.
At the start of June, two significant Ethereum wallets withdrew approximately 95,920 ETH (~$237 million) according to Etherscan.
In just the last 20 days, 62,289 ETH (~$154 million) were moved to exchanges like HTX, BYBIT, and OKX. The remaining 33,631 ETH (~$83 million) is still held in the whale’s address, which could be sold at any moment.
Data from LookonChain suggests that these wallets are managed by a single “large whale” entity.
Binance observes a steady influx of ETH
Recent reports indicate that large ETH holdings are being replaced with activities at exchanges, particularly Binance.
For five consecutive days, ETH inflows to Binance have been notable, signaling ongoing interest.
Further data from GlassNode reveals underlying bearish trends. The supply of ETH held by addresses owning between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH has been decreasing sharply since mid-May, while the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH group has been rising simultaneously.
This shift suggests that large holders might be splitting their assets into smaller amounts or distributing ETH to new addresses, possibly indicating an intent to offload assets, which adds to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Analyst indicates $4,000 is feasible
While the outlook for Ethereum seems bearish, it contrasts sharply with broader market movements.
Analyst Agela noted that the breakout above the weekly RSI resistance for Ether might just be around the corner.
“This could be a catalyst for price hikes,” Agela noted, emphasizing that since the first quarter of 2024, the weekly RSI for ETH has reached significant lows, contributing to its struggle to reclaim the $4,000 mark.
Other analysts also foresee a rise in Ether prices towards $10,000, driven by supportive technical indicators and steady inflows into ETH-focused investment funds.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investment activities come with risks, and readers should ensure they conduct their own research before making financial decisions.
