The EUR/USD pair saw a slight uptick after experiencing minor declines in the previous session, hovering around 1.1700 during Asian trading on Thursday. A look at the daily chart reveals that the pair is still contained within a descending channel, indicating that the downside pressure remains.
Currently, EUR/USD is sitting just above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), while the 9-day EMA has stabilized after being softer recently. The medium-term average appears flat, hinting more at a consistent trend rather than a breakout. For upward momentum to really take hold, bulls will require additional support as the fast EMA continues to linger below the 50-day.
A slight rise in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to 52—considered neutral—signals cautious interest. A stronger RSI could confirm a break to the upside, whereas a stagnation near the midline might keep things in a range.
If the price drops below the 50-day EMA at 1.1674 and the 9-day EMA at 1.1672, we might see the risk shift toward the seven-week low of 1.1589 reached on December 1st. From there, the lower edge of the descending channel would likely be around 1.1570.
Conversely, if there’s a robust break above both moving averages, it could set the stage for a recovery towards the descending channel’s boundary near 1.1760, followed by a possible rally to the three-month high of 1.1808 dated December 24th. Continued upward movement might even push EUR/USD to 1.1918, the highest level since June 2021.
