The EUR/USD pair is stable around 1.1750, showing little change, as recent US employment figures suggest the Federal Reserve might continue its easing approach into next year. Currently, the pair has a minor decrease of 0.04%.
Euro stays flat while US dollar remains steady following US employment news indicating a slowing labor market.
Latest U.S. nonfarm payroll reports for October and November, published early Tuesday, confirmed the labor market’s ongoing weakness. The unemployment rate in December was higher than the FOMC anticipated but hasn’t increased the chances of a rate cut during the FOMC’s January 28 meeting.
The US dollar index (DXY), which gauges the dollar against six other currencies, was steady at 98.21, hindering the potential rise of EUR/USD.
Recently, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic adopted a hawkish attitude, indicating he would prefer to keep the federal funds rate steady in December.
As of now, the swap market anticipates 59.8 basis points of rate easing by December 2026.
In related news, it was reported that US President Donald Trump intends to interview Fed Director Christopher Waller for a senior Fed position, alongside National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Director Kevin Warsh.
Economists predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current policy until 2026, with expectations of subdued inflation but a resilient economy, according to a Reuters poll.
This week, the ECB is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged during its Governing Council meeting on December 18.
Daily market trends: Euro remains stagnant despite disappointing US employment data
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic remarked that the employment report showed mixed results and didn’t alter the economic outlook. He noted a preference for keeping rates steady at the last meeting, citing “multiple surveys” indicating rising input costs as companies aim to preserve profit margins by increasing prices.
- “Price pressures aren’t solely influenced by tariffs,” Bostic explained, warning that the Fed shouldn’t rush to claim success, while projecting GDP growth of approximately 2.5% for 2026.
- According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm payrolls grew by 64,000 in November, surpassing the forecast of 50,000 and showing improvement from October’s loss of 105,000. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%.
- Retail sales in the U.S. were flat in October, indicating no change month-over-month, which is a slowdown from September’s growth of 0.1% and falling short of the expected increase. Conversely, control group sales—which influence the personal consumption component of GDP—rose by 0.8%, recovering from a previous drop.
- Negotiations for a peace agreement in Ukraine are ongoing. After President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Berlin, the U.S. has provided NATO-style security support to Kiev, offering some modest backing for the euro.
Technical outlook: EUR/USD maintains upward trend, yet remains in a neutral position
EUR/USD currently holds a neutral to upward stance, as market actions reveal a tombstone doji formation indicating indecision among traders. The bullish momentum seems to be waning, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
For a definitive bullish trend, buyers need to push above the 1.1800 level, which would set their sights on the 1.1850 area and the year-to-date high of 1.1918. On the other side, if EUR/USD dips below 1.1700, it might challenge the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.1645, just above the 1.1600 mark.
