America will be hit far more harder than Europe in the trade war, says top EU officials
EU Economic and Productivity Commissioner Bardis Dombrovskis was portrayed before an informal meeting of the EU Minister and Central Bank Governor (ECOFIN) for EU Economic and Finance Affairs held in Warsaw, Poland on April 11, 2025.
Wojtek radwanski | AFP | Getty Images
On Friday, European Economic and Productivity Committee Chairman Bardis Dombrovskis laid out what President Donald Trump's tariff administration could hamper the growth of the world's largest economy.
“According to the latest model simulations on the impact of US tariffs, US GDP will fall by 0.8% to 1.4% through 2027,” he said. Negative impact on ” [European Union] Approximately 0.2% of GDP, which is less than in the US. ”
“If tariffs are perceived as permanent or there are further measures, the economic outcomes will be even more negative. In the US, up to 3.1% to 3.3%, in the EU, 0.5% to 0.6%, and global trade will decrease by 7.7% over three years,” Dombrovskis said.
Earlier this week, Trump announced a 90-day suspension with so-called mutual tariffs. This sets a 20% import duties on EU goods shipped to the US, and announced in addition to a 25% tax on steel, aluminum, cars and car parts.
Dombrovskis said on Friday that the EU's new GDP simulation would exacerbate the slowdown as it did not explain investors' losses and business confidence in the economy.
“Europe doesn't want this conflict because Europe didn't start this conflict,” he told officials and reporters. “The tariffs violate the political and economic logic of the deeply long-standing transatlantic trade partnership, which was valued at 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion) in 2023. This is the world's largest trade and investment partnership.”
– Chloe Taylor
Novartis vows to invest $23 billion in the US as tariffs are looms
Novartis said in August it plans to spin-off generic unit Sandoz to focus on patented prescription drugs.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Stocks Novartis It rose 2.09% at 11:21am in London after the Swiss drug giant pledged to invest $23 billion to build and expand 10 facilities in the US over the next five years amid a new threat to industry-wide tariffs from President Donald Trump.
The plan ensures that all major Novartis drugs for U.S. patients, including widely used heart-middle failure medicine and Kiskari breast cancer therapy, will be carried out in the United States, the company said in a statement Thursday.
According to Novartis, the plan includes six new manufacturing plants. One in Florida and Texas, and “Sustained Decision” includes four new manufacturing plants and a new research and development site in San Diego, California.
The company said the move will create around 1,000 new jobs and around 4,000 U.S. jobs at Novartis.
CEO Vas Narasimhan, who repeatedly outlined his ambitions to grow in the US market, said tariffs are a consideration, but not a driver behind the company's decision.
“As a Swiss-based company with a large presence in the US, these investments will allow us to fully implement our supply chain and key technology platforms in the US to support our strong growth outlook,” Narasinghan said.
“These investments also reflect the US promotional policy and regulatory environment that supports our ability to find our patients' next medical breakthrough.”
– Karen Gilchrist
The “liberation date” tariffs will be “almost equivalent” to the damage caused by the eurozone crisis, capital economics says
According to capital economics, in the worst-case scenario in which the US cannot enter into trade contracts with many countries, the global gross domestic product could be hit by 1%.
The London-based consulting firm assumes that President Donald Trump's 90-day suspension on tariffs will expire without a major trade agreement, and that the US will return to its “liberation date” tariffs while maintaining a cumulative tariff of around 145% in China.
“This will be roughly equivalent to the global damage caused by the eurozone crisis,” said Simon McAdam, the company's assistant chief global economist, in a memo to clients on Thursday. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain were approaching the default of sovereignty in the eurozone debt crisis.
“If the US and China effectively block trade in most, if not all areas, then the fallout in financial markets could take on a unique life with a major negative feedback loop for the global economy,” added McAdam.
– Ganesh Rao
Energy stocks will fall after EIA reduces oil demand and price forecasts
European oil and gas stocks retreated on Friday after the US Energy Information Agency said it expects lower oil demand and lower oil and gas prices “in uncertain markets.”
The STOXX 600 Oil and Gas Price Index was 1.5% lower at 10am in London. shell 0.6% decrease All-liner gies Decrease of 1.6%.
Oil Pump Jack in Nolan, Texas, April 8, 2025.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images
EIA with Thursday's update taking into account the latest tariff-related global volatility I said We were hoping global oil inventories would rise from mid-2025, just as market uncertainty could be dragged by economic growth.
The agency changed its forecast to average Brent Crude Prices It was under $70 per barrel in 2025 and just over $60 per barrel in 2026, about 10% lower than its forecast for March. Currently, global oil consumption has increased by 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025, up 0.4 million barrels per day from forecasts in March.
In a memo released Thursday, UBS analysts said the energy market is “facing an extraordinary situation with higher than expected oil supply along with a more vulnerable growth in demand.”
“Low prices are more likely to continue to weigh emotions, reducing their assumptions accordingly and reducing their price targets by an average of 11%,” they added.
Other places, bp Warned in the update “Weak” gas trading revenues and higher net debt are expected for the first quarter. The stocks were 2% lower at the end.
– Jenni Reed
European currency rally
EUR It traded at around $1.133, up 1.2% against the US dollar on Friday morning.
British Pound He also opposed greenback by 8:12am in London by jumping to 0.6% and $1.304.
Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump suspended the deployment of country-specific tariffs that were hit by a 20% tax on European Union goods, and the deployment of UK goods with a 10% duty.
The EU said Thursday it would suspend planned measures against Trump's tariffs over 90 days.
Sterling also flew on Friday after better numbers than expected on economic growth abroad.
– Chloe Taylor
Barclays said a luxury market recovery will lead to tariff uncertainty
U.S. tariff uncertainty has clouded the prospects for the luxury market, a much-anticipated recovery, Barclays said Friday.
“We were hoping for a recovery in the luxury market over H2 2025,” Carol Maggio, head of Barclays' European luxury goods research, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe.
“There's all these new macro uncertainty, this [recover] It could be a further stage. ”
Maggio added that the potential for a tariff-induced global economic slowdown could lead to more stymic consumer demand in the once-popular Chinese market.
“We were hoping that China would fall by 5% this year,” she said. “But we are, of course, seeing more negative side risks now.”
– Karen Gilchrist
European stocks will rise on Friday as tariffs continue to attract volatility
Pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 Opened 0.4% with the UK FTSE 100 During Germany, it will increase by 0.5% Dachshund And France's CAC40 It was 0.4% higher at 8:10am London time.
All sectors of the stock market except energy were trading in positive territory. Stocks in the utility sector rose 1%, followed by the consumer circular and mining sectors rose 0.8%.
– Ganesh Rao
Oil giant BP expects lower first quarter reporting upstream production, higher net debt
General views of the BP logo and gas station front yard sign for the 22nd January 2024 in the UK.
John Keeble | Getty Images News | Getty Images
British Oil Major BP I said This is expected to have lower upstream production and higher net debt in the first quarter than in the last three months of 2024.
In a trading statement, the London-listed energy giant reported low upstream production, mainly due to the announcement of sales already announced in Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago.
Net debt for the first quarter, which energy analysts flagged as a concern for BP, is expected to be around $4 billion higher than the fourth quarter.
Net debt accumulation is driven primarily by working capital builds. This is expected to be a major reversal, reflecting the timing of payments, including seasonal inventory effects, annual bonus payments and payments that include low-carbon assets for sale,” BP said.
BP is expected to report its first quarter revenue on April 29th.
– Sammeredith
The UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, higher than expected
European market heads towards muted open
The European market is set to open slightly higher on Friday as the end of the volatile week approaches.
The UK FTSE 100 was last set to add 31 points to 7,955, while the German DAX rose 125 points to 20,727, while the French CAC 40 was set to score 25 points. Meanwhile, the Italian FTSE MIB took place on a course that added 223 points to 33,668.
– Sophie Kidelin
Gold Price raises new record, surpassing $3,200 for the first time
Gold futures reached a fresh record high of $3,226 per ounce as they rushed towards safe shelter assets as they celebrated trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world.
Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, said:
Wong added that he believes the current economic environment will continue to support the rise in gold prices.
—Lee Ying Shan
Stock futures will rise at the edge on Thursday evening
Navarro says the stock plunge is “no big deal.”
Peter Navarro, senior US trade advisor, will speak in an interview with CNN at the White House in Washington on April 10, 2025.
Evelyn Hockstein |Reuters
After the stocks plummeted, Trump's top trade advisor Peter Navarro didn't laugh at the suggestion that Trump's freewheel tariff policy switch could have had a lasting impact on the global financial system.
“I think CNBC is planning to sue CNN for infiltrating financial analysis,” Navarro responded in a CNN interview after the market closed.
“For me it's a pure spin,” he said. “The stock market history was the highest yesterday. Of course there's a bit of pullback. The question is, what kind of spin is to apply?”
“It's a normal tracing after a big day. That's not a big deal,” Navarro said.
– Kevin Bruninger
