Expect the expected from a second Biden or Trump term

Predictions, speculation, and speculation about what a second term for President Biden and former President Trump will bring has yet to become a cottage industry. But after Trump wins the Republican nomination in the coming weeks, we can expect a flood of commentary about what the incoming administration will or won't do, assuming he wins.

In reality, no one really knows.

In his second term, Biden could ignore the far left and pivot toward the center. One of the reasons he didn't do that in his first term was more or less to preserve party unity. He's not so tied down anymore.

In a Panglossian moment, perhaps Trump has learned a lesson from his first term. If he wants to be successful as president now, does he understand that truth, facts, and reality cannot be of his own making, or how does he view all three? I wonder? This would be Trump reborn.

But now that we have ruled out the least likely scenarios, is there any way to predict how the Biden or Trump administrations will assume the responsibility of governing in a situation that is likely dangerous for the majority of Americans? An irreparably divided countryAfter all, about three-quarters of us see the United States heading in the wrong direction.?

When asked about the future, former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan replied:event, dear boy, event” Anticipating some of these events will at least shape the contours that may define the next administration. And there are still some deciding factors.

How the next president is elected and the difference between defeat and victory are important. If the number of electors is close, it will be contested even if one of her candidates receives a very large share of the popular vote.playing cards repeatedly denied the results Alleging the 2020 election was fraudulent. Suppose a winner is chosen based on a small number of votes in some districts in some states. Imagine the opportunity for mischief and confusion.

Similarly, which party gains control of parliament will be a determining factor in influencing the next government. Permutations are easy. One party will control both houses. Or will we have a divided government? Obviously, one party that controls both ends of Pennsylvania will have support for the White House. A divided government is very likely to lead to gridlock and stalemate no matter who is elected president.

Opponents of Biden and Trump will hope that, if either wins, a divided Congress will provide a springboard to prevent major damage to the presidency. However, it is not the best basis for governing a nation. That's probably the most likely outcome.

So, Biden and Trump will discuss the most important issues plaguing this country, from the border and mass immigration to the economy, environment, foreign policy, national security, and the vast political divide that is likely to worsen in the election. How do we deal with such problems? Probably the answer won't work.

The national debt is exceeded $34 trillion. What we can predict with certainty is that the debt will only increase because no one is prepared to make the hard choices in dealing with a ballooning and ever-increasing entitlement and defense program. Given the vast political differences that divide the country, it is difficult to see how either administration can develop a bipartisan policy toward China, Russia, Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and the Persian Gulf/Red Sea.

President Trump could threaten to withdraw from NATO and impose tariffs on China and Europe. But Congress passed legislation that would make the former more difficult. And tariffs only hurt consumers.

The good news is that both will be less dependent on your location. The bad news is that they may no longer constrain the more extreme left or right policies each may follow. And whoever Trump chooses as his running mate could disrupt or worsen how the former president decides to govern.

Some speculate that simply considering life expectancy, it would be uneasy for an 81-year-old to play against a 79-year-old. Under these circumstances, perhaps the choice of vice president can make a real difference and reverse history for the first time. So what can we infer about the nature of the next government?

Here we introduce three predictions.

First, uncertainty about what future administrations will or will not do will exacerbate political divisions to near breaking point. This makes a bad situation even worse.

Second, if the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties, we can expect impeachment proceedings to begin in 2025, regardless of who is president.

Third, many Americans will want this country to survive until 2028.

Dr. Harlan Ullman is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and the principal author of the “Shock and Awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Pooming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at General, is available for purchase on Amazon. You can reach him on Twitter @harlankullman.