Nate Silver, founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, released his election model on Wednesday, showing former President Donald Trump has a two-in-three chance of winning the White House.
Silver is finished FiveThirtyEight in 2023, release I posted a model on Substack at natesilver.net called “Presidential Elections Are Not a 50-50 Chance.”
🚨 Nate Silver issues election forecast: Trump is expected to beat Biden 65.7% to 33.7%https://t.co/so7O47MNq9 pic.twitter.com/blTEy77A6Y
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) June 26, 2024
According to a screenshot of what appears to be the paid portion of the forecast that is currently a hot topic on X, Silver gives Trump a 65.7% chance of winning the White House in November.
Conversely, statisticians give Biden only a 33.7% chance of winning the election, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy has zero chance of winning the election.
The model predicts that Trump will receive 287.2 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win, while Biden will receive 250.4. Expected Vote Shares predicts that Biden and Trump will nearly split the vote at 47.2% and 47.1%, while predicting that 4.3% of all eligible voters will vote for Kennedy.
Silver’s business model is very different from that of the company he founded and previously worked for. FiveThirtyEight, owned by ABC. Gave As of Thursday afternoon, Biden had a 51% chance of winning, while Trump had 49%.
“Frankly, any candidate who thinks Trump has a better chance of winning is not the candidate who wants Biden to win,” Silver said. I have written He added that on Substack, he found the models were even more supportive of Trump than he had initially expected, according to Mediaite.
Silver also noted that he argued that the closeness between Trump and Biden in the popular vote portion of the model translates into a big advantage for Trump.
If the difference between the Electoral College and the popular vote is similar to 2016 and 2020, then we would expect Biden to be in serious trouble if the popular vote is roughly equal… so honestly, the pundits obsessing about Biden having a one-point lead in national polls are kind of missing the point.
Notably, the three states received just 45,000 votes. decided Despite the fact that national polls on the eve of the 2020 election had Biden leading Trump by an average of 8.4 percentage points, Documented From FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight’s average is now Have The 45th president, Trump and Biden, are neck and neck at 40.8 percent and 40.9 percent, respectively, while Kennedy is averaging 9.3 percent. Silver’s average of polls has Trump at 42.3 percent, Biden at 41.3 percent and Kennedy at 8 percent.
Silver explain He calls his model a “direct descendant of FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast.” His model omits the coronavirus precautions that FiveThirtyEight “put in place in 2020,” but says the methodology is “largely similar.”
