Fantasy football start/sit advice for Ravens vs. Chiefs to kick off the 2024 NFL season

The NFL is back! And even better news: the league will soon be treating us to a fantastic matchup in the season opener on Thursday night. The Chiefs and Ravens met in the 2024 AFC Championship Game just eight months ago in rainy Baltimore, with Kansas City winning a hard-fought 17-10 victory to claim their second consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Both teams are considered favorites to win the AFC title again this season, with the Chiefs looking to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to win three straight championships.

That AFC title game was played in cold, rainy conditions, which likely contributed to the low scores. This time, it will be in Kansas City, and while rain is a possibility, the weather will not be a major factor. This will be the second year in a row that the Chiefs will host a Thursday night opener. Last year, they lost a close 21-20 game to the upstart Lions, but that game was played without Travis Kelce. The Chiefs' receivers also treated the ball like live rats and dropped multiple passes, an issue that plagued the team all season. Tonight's game is probably more important for the Ravens, but both teams will want to start the season with a win and secure a head-to-head victory in the playoff positioning game. The Chiefs have a three-point advantage, which is the standard home-field advantage between equal opponents.

Okay, enough preparation. This is a big game. We are here to talk about fantasy football! From that perspective, this should be fun, as some of the biggest names in the game will be on the field. But fantasy managers should probably temper their expectations a bit. First, it's Week 1, and offenses often struggle a bit from the get-go. But there's this, too. The Ravens and Chiefs ranked first and second last year in teams that allowed the fewest points. The Ravens are just behind at 15.5 points per game, and the Chiefs at 15.8. Both defenses should be among the best units in the league again. I have a total of 47.5 for Vegas going into tonight's game. It's not low, but it's not that high either. This probably won't be a shootout, but it should give us more points than the measly 27 points in January.

If you drafted one of these teams' big fantasy guns, you're unlikely to have a better option and will slot them into your lineup without much forethought. Since you've drafted these players as weekly starters, my general advice would be to go with the best player and not try to tinker. But you might have some decisions to make, so let's take a closer look.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson These two are two of the biggest stars in sports and fantasy. They've each won two NFL MVP awards in the past six seasons and each had at least one fantasy QB1 season. Mahomes averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game last year. Seven While that's a full point lower than his average from the year before (QB1, Player1 in fantasy), it's the only time he's had an FPPG below 20 since becoming the Chiefs' starter in 2018. He finished as the QB10 for the season on an FPPG basis, which is unusual for him. With the additions (and cuts… hello, Kadarius Toney) the Chiefs made to their receiver room this offseason, Mahomes is widely expected to return to top-five form, but he won't have those shiny new recruits. Hollywood Brown (shoulder), in this game. It's also a very difficult matchup. The Ravens allowed just 18 TD passes all of last season, and only the Jets have allowed fewer FPPG to their QBs in 2023. Mahomes is off to a solid start this week and is always capable of big plays, but better days are ahead.

Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP, finished last season as the QB3 and is expected to run and throw to have another great season. The Chiefs are a tough opponent, so I don't think he'll be at his limit this week. Last year, they allowed just 19 TD passes and were a top 10 team in FPPG allowed to QBs. Sure, this is a decent start to the week, but as with Mahomes, I'd keep expectations in check.

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images

Running back

Surprisingly, both the KC and Baltimore defenses were in the top seven units in terms of fewest FPPG allowed to running backs last season. Derrick Henry and Isaiah Pacheco Both have played solidly this week, and each should dominate the running back touches for their team. The Ravens somehow only gave their running backs eight carries (and only two in the entire second half) in the AFC Championship Game, a game in which they never led by more than 10 points. The acquisition of Henry feels like a direct response to that failure. He's entering his age 30 season and for the first time in a long time, he'll be running behind a strong line in a favorable scheme. He'll also benefit from the threat of having Jackson next to him in the backfield. Baltimore's runners have consistently ranked at or near the top of the league in yards per carry and yards before contact, and they don't have a downhill slugger like Henry. I expect Baltimore to commit to the run, and unless the game gets away from them in the first half, Henry should have a busy night in his Ravens debut. I also think he'll get to the end zone at least once.

As for Pacheco, he had very little competition for Carrie. Samaje Perrine He may be tasked with third downs and passing, but he's a new addition and the team clearly has confidence in Pacheco. He's had at least 24 touches in three of his four postseason games, including 28 against the Ravens. He'll get plenty of rushing opportunities in this one, including red zone and goal line opportunities, and he should also get some targets from Mahomes. Start him with confidence.

None of the backup RBs are even worth considering this week.

Photo: Kara Durrett/Getty Images

Wide Receiver

This is where it gets interesting. Ruthie Rice or They Flowersyou would almost certainly pick them as the 2nd or 3rd receiver and expect them to be weekly starters. I think they both played well this week. Rice emerged as the Chiefs' top WR target late last year and was WR10 from Weeks 11-17 (half PPR). He appears to have escaped suspension for now and should definitely start with Brown missing this game.

Flowers also started the week strong. He was the Ravens' top wide receiver as a 2023 rookie, but the team didn't add much to the position this offseason. He had a strong game in the AFC Finals against the Chiefs, finishing with five catches for 115 yards. He also came close to scoring a deciding touchdown for the Ravens on the first play of the fourth quarter, but fumbled at the goal line. “That was awful,” Ravens fans said. In fact, their taunts were even worse. Don't think Flowers has forgotten that play, either.

Chiefs rookie speedster Xavier Worthy This week creates an interesting dilemma for fantasy managers. On the one hand, he is a rookie making his NFL debut, and we don’t really know how the Chiefs plan to use him, what his snaps or target share will be, or what to expect. Rookie receivers often take a few games to get going. Justin Jefferson, who was selected in the same range as Worthy in the NFL Draft, didn’t really make a splash until Week 3 of his outstanding rookie season. But on the other hand, with Brown likely out, he should get plenty of opportunities right away. Plus, given his incredible speed, one big play might be enough to outscore any of the players you’re considering. Of course, it depends on your roster, but with no bye week and few injuries in Week 1, you probably have your entire roster at your disposal. But Brown’s injury creates the opportunity you were hoping for, and if you can find a way to work Worthy into your lineup without sacrificing too much, I think it’s worth a shot.

I don't see any reason to force another receiver into the lineup this week. I hear people say, “This year is the best.” Rashod BatemanBut if you do roster him, he's a lock, so act smart and keep him for now. The remaining receivers on both teams are likely on the waiver wire rather than on the bench at this point.

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Tight End

Like the QB and RB, this is a no-brainer. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews Both are top-five options at the position (maybe more). If you have them, start them. Andrews was in a car accident over the summer and didn't practice for two weeks, but he should be ready soon. Kelce had a monster performance in the AFC title game (11-116-1). The Chiefs will likely manage his workload again throughout the season, but as a soon-to-be 35-year-old future Hall of Famer, he should be started every week. As long as the starters are healthy, a backup tight end isn't worth considering.

Kicker

This is also an easy call. Both kickers should go in without a moment's hesitation. If either one is selected as the kicker, they should be one of the first teams in the league to select a kicker. We'll talk about the wisdom of that another time. Both kickers kicked one field goal each in the AFC Championship Game, but I think they'll both try multiple times, given the quality of the defense and the weather. Justin Tucker (90.2%) Harrison Butker (89.1%) sit 1st and 2nd place in history Field goal accuracy. Yes, that's right. They can both shoot from long range, so they get bonus points.

Saturday

It's Week 1 and no team has two defenses/special teams. If you draft one of these units, play that unit. That's it. Not the best matchup for either of them.

That's all I have to say: Enjoy tonight's game, and good luck with your fantasy teams this week and throughout the season. My full fantasy preview for Week 1 will be posted later today on SBNation's sister site Big Blue View, and be sure to check back on Monday for my Waiver Wire column.