Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigration party is on the verge of becoming the largest political force in France’s parliament after winning its highest-ever share of the vote in the first round of surprise parliamentary elections.
After exit polls showed the far-right had won, left and center candidates began calling for strategic voting to thwart the far-right before next Sunday’s runoff election. The National Rally (RN) won around 34% of the national vote, with the left-wing coalition in second place and Emmanuel Macron’s group a distant third.
The RN won around 12 million votes, nearly three times the 4.2 million it received in the last parliamentary elections in 2022.
After the vote, Le Pen said the French people had “shown with a clear vote… their desire to put an end to seven disgraceful and corrupt years.” [presidency]She said she was confident of Macron’s “victory” and that the president’s centrist bloc had been all but “wiped out” by the RN, which now hopes to increase its 88 seats in parliament to a 289-seat majority.
That remains a tough task, but if it happens in a crucial second round of voting next Sunday, it would be the first time in French history that a far-right party has won parliamentary elections and formed a government. In that scenario, Macron, who called the elections three weeks ago after losing the European Parliament elections to the RN, would share power.
Similarly, the RN may win the most seats but fall short of a majority, which could leave Macron in a hanging parliament unable to govern the EU’s second-largest economy and largest military.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-wing coalition formed with the aim of suppressing far-right forces, is believed to have won around 29% of the vote.
“We have one week to stop the far-right from taking power. All progressives and humanists must rally behind the new Popular Front,” said Clementine Autun of the left-wing Remain France party ahead of the second round of voting next week.
Macron’s centrist coalition is faring poorly, with exit polls showing it won between 20.5% and 23% of the vote. It was the largest party in parliament, but it could lose more than half its seats and fall to third place.
While the national vote percentages show the broad pattern of the vote, they do not predict the exact makeup of the 577-seat parliament, which will only be known after the final round of voting on July 7. Most constituencies will go to runoff elections, including a record three-way runoff.
On Sunday night, Le Pen’s successor, party leader Jordan Bardella, said he wanted to be “the prime minister of all French people”. But thousands took to the streets in Paris, Lyon, Lille, Nantes, Strasbourg and other cities to protest against his party. A huge crowd gathered at the capital’s Place de la Republique, where leaders of the left-wing coalition spoke out against the far right.
Bardella said he would only become prime minister if his party won an absolute majority. He has denied trying to form a minority government and neither Macron nor the left-wing NFP party will work with him.
“I will be a ‘coexistence’ prime minister,” he said, referring to Macron remaining in power, saying he would “respect the constitution and the presidency, but I will not compromise on the policies I implement.”
Whether the RN can take power will depend on political deals made by its rivals in the coming days. In the past, traditional parties on the right and left have agreed to exclude candidates from the runoff to avoid splitting votes against the RN. But a strategic voting strategy to stop the RN, dubbed the “Republican Front,” is more uncertain than ever.
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In a written statement, Macron called on voters to support candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic,” which, according to his recent statements, would not include candidates from the RN or Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s unyielding French party, but would include candidates representing the more moderate left-wing parties of the NFP.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal echoed this call in a speech, saying that now that the RN is in power, the candidate who came third in the runoff should withdraw. “Not a single vote should go to the National Coalition… The stakes are clear: to prevent the National Coalition from gaining an absolute majority,” he said.
Mélenchon said his party would withdraw all of its candidates who came third in the first round of voting. “Our policy is simple: we will not cast a single vote for the National Rally,” he said.
Several RN members were elected in the first round, including Marine Le Pen. In northern France, Communist leader Fabien Roussel, one of the most popular figures on the French left, lost in the first round to RN candidate Guillaume Florquin.
Turnout exceeded 69 percent, well above the 47.5 percent turnout in 2022 and the highest in nearly four decades in an increasingly polarised country with President Macron saying a victory for either the far right or the far left could lead to a “civil war” in France.
Risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said there was a “high probability” that the RN would fall short of an absolute majority, adding that France would face “at least 12 months of a fiercely blocked National Assembly and, at best, a technocratic ‘national unity’ government with limited capacity to govern.”
For decades, the National Front, co-founded by Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, has been seen as a danger to democracy, promoting racist, anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim views. Center- and left-wing politicians have tried to remind voters of the 52-year-old party’s history. In its early days, its members included former members of the Waffen-SS, the Nazi-controlled army during World War II. But the renamed party has thrived after years of public relations efforts by Marine Le Pen to normalize its policies and clean up its image.
However, the anti-immigration party maintains the traditional doctrine formerly known as “France for the French” or “Citizens First”, rebranded as “Citizens First”. This means that if French nationals come to power, French nationals will have priority over foreigners when it comes to jobs, social welfare assistance and housing. The party has promised to exclude dual nationals from certain strategic state positions in France. The party wants to abolish citizenship rights for children of foreign parents born and raised in France.
Macron stunned and bewildered his own government and supporters this month when he decided to dissolve Parliament and call early elections after his centrist, pro-European Union party suffered a crushing defeat to the RN in EU elections. He insisted he was calling the vote to “gain clarity” on France’s political situation.
