Fauci’s Diary Reveals Discrepancies in COVID-19 Fatality Rate Statements

Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, seems to have misrepresented the fatality rate of the coronavirus. Initially, he stated it was between 2% to 2.5%, but later noted in his private diary that it was actually “more like 0.2% to 0.3%.”

This revelation emerged from Fauci’s personal diary, which documented his activities during the early days of the Trump administration’s response to the pandemic. Senator Rand Paul, chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, made the diary available ahead of Fauci’s testimony before the committee.

In a diary entry from February 2020, Fauci reflected on the infection rates and his various media engagements. He commented on the fatality rate, suggesting it was more like “0.2-0.3% than 2.0%.”

Tom Frieden called me this morning to discuss various aspects of the outbreak. He and I have the same idea. It is acting like a bad flu in its transmissibility, with a much larger denominator than 34,867, so the case fatality rate is closer to 0.2-0.3% instead of 2.0%.

However, this wasn’t the message Fauci conveyed publicly at that time.

In March, during an appearance on Hannity, he claimed the death rate was “about 2, 2.5 percent.” He contrasted this with the seasonal flu, stating, “Seasonal influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1%. This mortality rate is about 2, 2.5%. It’s probably lower than that. It’s probably closer to 1. But even if it were 1, it’s 10 times more deadly than seasonal influenza. People need to understand that.”

Fauci repeated these figures while testifying before Congress that same month. He noted the contrasting rates, saying, “Understand that the seasonal flu we deal with each year has a mortality rate of 0.1%. If you look at all the data including China, this overall mortality rate is about 3%… If you count all cases of mild or asymptomatic infection, I think the mortality rate will probably drop to around 1%. This means it is 10 times more deadly than seasonal influenza.”

Later in the month, he told Trevor Noah on the Daily Show that the flu has a mortality rate of “about 0.1 percent.” He emphasized that this time, the mortality rate is roughly “at least 1%,” indicating it was significantly higher.

Nevertheless, this is at odds with what he wrote in his diary earlier in February.

Fauci is scheduled to testify again before the committee on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.

The complete diary, where he expresses admiration for his fame, can be accessed in full.